Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-2075-0 |
Understanding the detectability of potential changes to the 100-year peak storm surge | |
Ceres, Robert L.1; Forest, Chris E.1,2,3; Keller, Klaus2,3,4 | |
2017-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 145 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | In many coastal communities, the risks driven by storm surges are motivating substantial investments in flood risk management. The design of adaptive risk management strategies, however, hinges on the ability to detect future changes in storm surge statistics. Previous studies have used observations to identify changes in past storm surge statistics. Here, we focus on the simple and decision-relevant question: How fast can we learn from past and potential future storm surge observations about changes in future statistics? Using Observing System Simulation Experiments, we quantify the time required to detect changes in the probability of extreme storm surge events. We estimate low probabilities of detection when substantial but gradual changes to the 100-year storm surge occur. As a result, policy makers may underestimate considerable increases in storm surge risk over the typically long lifespans of major infrastructure projects. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000415031800016 |
WOS关键词 | EXTREME-VALUE ANALYSIS ; SEA-LEVEL ; CLIMATE ; FREQUENCY ; THREAT ; MODEL ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30039 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol & Atmospher Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 2.Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16803 USA; 3.Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, University Pk, PA 16803 USA; 4.Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ceres, Robert L.,Forest, Chris E.,Keller, Klaus. Understanding the detectability of potential changes to the 100-year peak storm surge[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,145. |
APA | Ceres, Robert L.,Forest, Chris E.,&Keller, Klaus.(2017).Understanding the detectability of potential changes to the 100-year peak storm surge.CLIMATIC CHANGE,145. |
MLA | Ceres, Robert L.,et al."Understanding the detectability of potential changes to the 100-year peak storm surge".CLIMATIC CHANGE 145(2017). |
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