Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2290-3 |
The impact of future climate change and potential adaptation methods on Maize yields in West Africa | |
Parkes, Ben1,4; Sultan, Benjamin2; Ciais, Philippe3 | |
2018-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 151期号:2页码:205-217 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France; England |
英文摘要 | Maize (Zea mays) is one of the staple crops of West Africa and is therefore of high importance with regard to future food security. The ability of West Africa to produce enough food is critical as the population is expected to increase well into the twenty-first century. In this study, a process-based crop model is used to project maize yields in Africa for global temperatures 2 K and 4 K above the preindustrial control. This study investigates how yields and crop failure rates are influenced by climate change and the efficacy of adaptation methods to mitigate the effects of climate change. To account for the uncertainties in future climate projections, multiple model runs have been performed at specific warming levels of +2 K and +4 K to give a better estimate of future crop yields. Under a warming of +2 K, the maize yield is projected to reduce by 5.9% with an increase in both mild and severe crop failure rates. Mild and severe crop failures are yields 1 and 1.5 standard deviations below the observed yield. At a warming of +4 K, the results show a yield reduction of 37% and severe crop failures which previously only occurred once in 19.7 years are expected to happen every 2.5 years. Crops simulated with a resistance to high temperature stress show an increase in yields in all climate conditions compared to unadapted crops; however, they still experience more crop failures than the unadapted crop in the control climate. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000451021600009 |
WOS关键词 | CROP YIELD ; FOOD ; SIMULATION ; MODEL ; ENSEMBLE ; CARBON ; PLANTS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30030 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Sorbonne Univ, Univ Paris 06, UPMC, CNRS,IRD,MNHN,LOCEAN,IPSL, 4 Pl Jussieu, F-75005 Paris, France; 2.Univ Avignon, Univ Antilles, Univ Reunion, Univ Guyane,Univ Montpellier,ESPACE,DEV,IRD, Montpellier, France; 3.CEA, Ctr Etud Orme Merisiers, IPSL, LSCE,CNRS,UVSQ,UPSaclay, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France; 4.Univ Manchester, Sch Mech Aerosp & Civil Engn, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Parkes, Ben,Sultan, Benjamin,Ciais, Philippe. The impact of future climate change and potential adaptation methods on Maize yields in West Africa[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,151(2):205-217. |
APA | Parkes, Ben,Sultan, Benjamin,&Ciais, Philippe.(2018).The impact of future climate change and potential adaptation methods on Maize yields in West Africa.CLIMATIC CHANGE,151(2),205-217. |
MLA | Parkes, Ben,et al."The impact of future climate change and potential adaptation methods on Maize yields in West Africa".CLIMATIC CHANGE 151.2(2018):205-217. |
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