Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020WR028256 |
Bayesian hierarchical models for the frequency of winter heavy precipitation events over the central United States: The role of atmospheric rivers | |
Munir Ahmad Nayak; Mary Kathryn Cowles; Gabriele Villarini; Burhan ul Wafa | |
2020-10-19 | |
发表期刊 | Water Resources Research |
出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | Over the central United States, a large fraction of heavy precipitation and flood events have been tied to atmospheric rivers (ARs) and to two large‐scale atmospheric modes, the Pacific–North American teleconnection pattern (PNA) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Here, we build on these insights to model the frequency of heavy precipitation events at 88 locations across the central United States. We use a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework to develop and compare different models with varying degrees of complexity and nonstationary parameters that are conditioned on ARs and the prevalent climate. We show that Bayesian hierarchical models with a prior layer that allows spatially correlated parameters result in improved prediction skills over the traditional regression‐based modelling frameworks. While ARs, PNA, and AO have statistically significant relationships with the frequency of heavy precipitation events over large areas of the central United States, we find that ARs can significantly improve upon the other two covariates in the statistical modelling of extremes over the region. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/300241 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Munir Ahmad Nayak,Mary Kathryn Cowles,Gabriele Villarini,et al. Bayesian hierarchical models for the frequency of winter heavy precipitation events over the central United States: The role of atmospheric rivers[J]. Water Resources Research,2020. |
APA | Munir Ahmad Nayak,Mary Kathryn Cowles,Gabriele Villarini,&Burhan ul Wafa.(2020).Bayesian hierarchical models for the frequency of winter heavy precipitation events over the central United States: The role of atmospheric rivers.Water Resources Research. |
MLA | Munir Ahmad Nayak,et al."Bayesian hierarchical models for the frequency of winter heavy precipitation events over the central United States: The role of atmospheric rivers".Water Resources Research (2020). |
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