Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-2114-x |
Potential impacts of climate warming and increased summer heat stress on the electric grid: a case study for a large power transformer (LPT) in the Northeast United States | |
Gao, Xiang1; Schlosser, C. Adam1; Morgan, Eric R.2 | |
2018-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 147页码:107-118 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Large power transformers (LPTs) are critical yet vulnerable components of the power grid. More frequent and intense heat waves or high temperatures can degrade their operational lifetime and increase the risk of premature failure. Without adequate preparedness, a widespread situation could ultimately lead to prolonged grid disruption and incur excessive economic costs. Here, we investigate the potential impact of climate warming and corresponding shifts in summertime "hot days" on a selected LPT located in the Northeast United States. We apply an analogue method, which detects the occurrence of hot days based on the salient, associated large-scale atmospheric conditions, to assess the risk of future change in their occurrence. Compared with the more conventional approach that relies on climate model-simulated daily maximum temperature, the analogue method produces model medians of late twentieth century hot day frequency that are more consistent with observation and have stronger inter-model consensus. Under the climate warming scenarios, multi-model medians of both model daily maximum temperature and the analogue method indicate strong decadal increases in hot day frequency by the late twenty-first century, but the analogue method improves model consensus considerably. The decrease of transformer lifetime with temperature increase is further assessed. The improved inter-model consensus of the analogue method is viewed as a promising step toward providing actionable information for a more stable, reliable, and environmentally responsible national grid. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425959700009 |
WOS关键词 | PRECIPITATION EXTREMES ; RISK-ASSESSMENT ; CMIP5 ; ENSEMBLE ; MODEL ; TEMPERATURE ; INDEXES ; EVENTS ; WAVES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30021 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.MIT, Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA; 2.MIT, Lincoln Lab, 244 Wood St, Lexington, MA 02173 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gao, Xiang,Schlosser, C. Adam,Morgan, Eric R.. Potential impacts of climate warming and increased summer heat stress on the electric grid: a case study for a large power transformer (LPT) in the Northeast United States[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,147:107-118. |
APA | Gao, Xiang,Schlosser, C. Adam,&Morgan, Eric R..(2018).Potential impacts of climate warming and increased summer heat stress on the electric grid: a case study for a large power transformer (LPT) in the Northeast United States.CLIMATIC CHANGE,147,107-118. |
MLA | Gao, Xiang,et al."Potential impacts of climate warming and increased summer heat stress on the electric grid: a case study for a large power transformer (LPT) in the Northeast United States".CLIMATIC CHANGE 147(2018):107-118. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论