Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-016-1723-0 |
Analysis of hydrological extremes at different hydro-climatic regimes under present and future conditions | |
Pechlivanidis, I. G.1; Arheimer, B.1; Donnelly, C.1; Hundecha, Y.1; Huang, S.2; Aich, V.2; Samaniego, L.3; Eisner, S.4; Shi, P.5 | |
2017-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 141期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Sweden; Germany; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | We investigate simulated hydrological extremes (i.e., high and low flows) under the present and future climatic conditions for five river basins worldwide: the Ganges, Lena, Niger, Rhine, and Tagus. Future projections are based on five GCMs and four emission scenarios. We analyse results from the HYPE, mHM, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP3 hydrological models calibrated and validated to simulate each river. The use of different impact models and future projections allows for an assessment of the uncertainty of future impacts. The analysis of extremes is conducted for four different time horizons: reference (1981-2010), early-century (2006-2035), mid-century (2036-2065) and end-century (2070-2099). In addition, Sen's non-parametric estimator of slope is used to calculate the magnitude of trend in extremes, whose statistical significance is assessed by the Mann-Kendall test. Overall, the impact of climate change is more severe at the end of the century and particularly in dry regions. High flows are generally sensitive to changes in precipitation, however sensitivity varies between the basins. Finally, results show that conclusions in climate change impact studies can be highly influenced by uncertainty both in the climate and impact models, whilst the sensitivity to climate modelling uncertainty becoming greater than hydrological model uncertainty in the dry regions. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000396824300008 |
WOS关键词 | CHANGE IMPACT ; WATER-RESOURCES ; UNCERTAINTY ; ENSEMBLE ; RUNOFF ; MODELS ; FLOWS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29985 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Norrkoping, Sweden; 2.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany; 3.UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Leipzig, Germany; 4.Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, Kassel, Germany; 5.Hohai Univ, Ctr Global Change & Water Cycle, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pechlivanidis, I. G.,Arheimer, B.,Donnelly, C.,et al. Analysis of hydrological extremes at different hydro-climatic regimes under present and future conditions[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,141(3). |
APA | Pechlivanidis, I. G..,Arheimer, B..,Donnelly, C..,Hundecha, Y..,Huang, S..,...&Shi, P..(2017).Analysis of hydrological extremes at different hydro-climatic regimes under present and future conditions.CLIMATIC CHANGE,141(3). |
MLA | Pechlivanidis, I. G.,et al."Analysis of hydrological extremes at different hydro-climatic regimes under present and future conditions".CLIMATIC CHANGE 141.3(2017). |
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