Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2156-8 |
Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change | |
Stambaugh, Michael C.1; Guyette, Richard P.1; Stroh, Esther D.2; Struckhoff, Matthew A.2; Whittier, Joanna B.1 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
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ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 147页码:617-631 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Globally, changing fire regimes due to climate is one of the greatest threats to ecosystems and society. In this paper, we present projections of future fire probability for the southcentral USA using downscaled climate projections and the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM). Future fire probability is projected to both increase and decrease across the study region of Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. Among all end-of-century projections, change in fire probabilities (CFPs) range from - 51 to + 240%. Greatest absolute increases in fire probability are shown for areas within the range of approximately 75 to 160 cm mean annual precipitation (MAP), regardless of climate model. Although fire is likely to become more frequent across the southcentral USA, spatial patterns may remain similar unless significant increases in precipitation occur, whereby more extensive areas with increased fire probability are predicted. Perhaps one of the most important results is illumination of climate changes where fire probability response (+, -) may deviate (i.e., tipping points). Fire regimes of southcentral US ecosystems occur in a geographic transition zone from reactant- to reaction-limited conditions, potentially making them uniquely responsive to different scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes. Identification and description of these conditions may help anticipate fire regime changes that will affect human health, agriculture, species conservation, and nutrient and water cycling. |
英文关键词 | Mean fire interval Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM) New Mexico Oklahoma Texas |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000428427200017 |
WOS关键词 | FIRE FREQUENCY ; COUPLED MODEL ; VARIABILITY ; CHARCOAL ; DROUGHT ; SHIFTS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29975 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Missouri, Sch Nat Resources, Columbia, MO 65211 USA; 2.US Geol Survey, Columbia Environm Res Ctr, Columbia, MO USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Stambaugh, Michael C.,Guyette, Richard P.,Stroh, Esther D.,et al. Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,147:617-631. |
APA | Stambaugh, Michael C.,Guyette, Richard P.,Stroh, Esther D.,Struckhoff, Matthew A.,&Whittier, Joanna B..(2018).Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change.CLIMATIC CHANGE,147,617-631. |
MLA | Stambaugh, Michael C.,et al."Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change".CLIMATIC CHANGE 147(2018):617-631. |
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