Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2183-5 |
Providing future climate projections using multiple models and methods: insights from the Philippines | |
Daron, Joseph1; Macadam, Ian1; Kanamaru, Hideki2; Cinco, Thelma3; Katzfey, Jack4; Scannell, Claire1; Jones, Richard1; Villafuerte, Marcelino, II3; Cruz, Faye5; Narisma, Gemma5,6; Jane Delfino, Rafaela7; Lasco, Rodel7; Manalo, John3; Ares, Emma3; Liza Solis, Ana3; de Guzman, Rosalina3,8; Basconcillo, Joseph3; Tangang, Fredolin9 | |
2018-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 148页码:187-203 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Italy; Philippines; Australia; South Korea; Malaysia |
英文摘要 | To meet the growing demand for climate change information to guide national and local adaptation decision-making in the Philippines, the climate science and services community is producing an increasing volume of future climate data using a range of modelling approaches. However, there is a significant methodological challenge in how to best compare and combine information produced using different models and methods. In this paper, we present the landscape of climate model data available in the Philippines and show how multi-model, multi-method climate projections are being used and communicated to inform climate change policy and planning, focusing on the agriculture sector. We highlight the importance of examining and communicating methodological strengths and weaknesses as well as understanding the needs and capabilities of different user communities. We discuss the assessment of projections from different methods, including global and regional downscaled simulations, and discuss ways to summarise and communicate this information to stakeholders using co-production approaches. The paper concludes with perspectives on how to best use an "ensemble of opportunity" to construct defensible, plausible and usable climate projections. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000431788500013 |
WOS关键词 | CHANGE IMPACTS ; RAINFALL ; ENSEMBLE ; REGCM4 ; PRECIPITATION ; UNCERTAINTIES ; TEMPERATURE ; FRAMEWORK |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29974 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Met Off, Exeter, Devon, England; 2.FAO, Rome, Italy; 3.PAGASA, Quezon City, Philippines; 4.CSIRO, Aspendale, Vic, Australia; 5.Manila Observ, Quezon City, Philippines; 6.Ateneo Manila Univ, Quezon City, Philippines; 7.Oscar M Lopez Ctr, Pasig, Philippines; 8.Jeju Natl Univ, Jeju City, South Korea; 9.Univ Kebangsaan Malaysia, Sch Environm & Nat Resource Sci, Bangi, Malaysia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Daron, Joseph,Macadam, Ian,Kanamaru, Hideki,et al. Providing future climate projections using multiple models and methods: insights from the Philippines[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,148:187-203. |
APA | Daron, Joseph.,Macadam, Ian.,Kanamaru, Hideki.,Cinco, Thelma.,Katzfey, Jack.,...&Tangang, Fredolin.(2018).Providing future climate projections using multiple models and methods: insights from the Philippines.CLIMATIC CHANGE,148,187-203. |
MLA | Daron, Joseph,et al."Providing future climate projections using multiple models and methods: insights from the Philippines".CLIMATIC CHANGE 148(2018):187-203. |
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