GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s10584-016-1888-6
Effect of future climate change on the coupling between the tropical oceans and precipitation over Southeastern South America
Martin-Gomez, Vernica; Barreiro, Marcelo
2017-03-01
发表期刊CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN0165-0009
EISSN1573-1480
出版年2017
卷号141期号:2
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Uruguay
英文摘要

El Nio, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Tropical North Atlantic variability (TNA) can influence southeastern South America (SESA) rainfall, particularly during springtime. A recent study has shown that during the last century, there were two synchronization periods (1930s and 1970s) in which different tropical oceans interacted among themselves and, in turn, induced precipitation anomalies over SESA. In this study, we evaluate how this collective influence of the tropical oceans on SESA precipitation observed during the twentieth century, can change in the next century as result of anthropogenic forcing. To do so, we use the output of seven different CMIP5 models and construct a network using as nodes the indices of the Nio3.4, the TNA, the IOD and rainfall over SESA. After evaluating their skill in representing the observed network statistics during the twentieth century, we study changes in the network under RCP4.5 and 8.5 global warming scenarios in the twenty-first century. Focusing on the grand CMIP5 ensemble mean, results suggest that an anthropogenic forcing would increase the number of synchronization periods per century, their time length, and the connectivity between nodes (with the exception of TNA and IOD in RCP8.5). The stronger connectivity of SESA precipitation with the tropical oceans in both scenarios suggest an increase of the oceanic influence on rainfall over SESA as a result of anthropogenic forcing, which would enhance its seasonal predictability. However, these results have to be taken with caution because there is a large disparity in model behavior and thus a large uncertainty in conclusions suggested from the grand ensemble mean.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000396124400013
WOS关键词EL-NINO ; INDIAN-OCEAN ; ENSO ; ATLANTIC ; MODELS
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29967
专题气候变化
作者单位Univ Republica, Inst Fis, Fac Ciencias, Dept Ciencias Atmosfera, Igua 4225, Montevideo 11400, Uruguay
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GB/T 7714
Martin-Gomez, Vernica,Barreiro, Marcelo. Effect of future climate change on the coupling between the tropical oceans and precipitation over Southeastern South America[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,141(2).
APA Martin-Gomez, Vernica,&Barreiro, Marcelo.(2017).Effect of future climate change on the coupling between the tropical oceans and precipitation over Southeastern South America.CLIMATIC CHANGE,141(2).
MLA Martin-Gomez, Vernica,et al."Effect of future climate change on the coupling between the tropical oceans and precipitation over Southeastern South America".CLIMATIC CHANGE 141.2(2017).
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