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DOI | 10.1007/s10584-016-1888-6 |
Effect of future climate change on the coupling between the tropical oceans and precipitation over Southeastern South America | |
Martin-Gomez, Vernica; Barreiro, Marcelo | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 141期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Uruguay |
英文摘要 | El Nio, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Tropical North Atlantic variability (TNA) can influence southeastern South America (SESA) rainfall, particularly during springtime. A recent study has shown that during the last century, there were two synchronization periods (1930s and 1970s) in which different tropical oceans interacted among themselves and, in turn, induced precipitation anomalies over SESA. In this study, we evaluate how this collective influence of the tropical oceans on SESA precipitation observed during the twentieth century, can change in the next century as result of anthropogenic forcing. To do so, we use the output of seven different CMIP5 models and construct a network using as nodes the indices of the Nio3.4, the TNA, the IOD and rainfall over SESA. After evaluating their skill in representing the observed network statistics during the twentieth century, we study changes in the network under RCP4.5 and 8.5 global warming scenarios in the twenty-first century. Focusing on the grand CMIP5 ensemble mean, results suggest that an anthropogenic forcing would increase the number of synchronization periods per century, their time length, and the connectivity between nodes (with the exception of TNA and IOD in RCP8.5). The stronger connectivity of SESA precipitation with the tropical oceans in both scenarios suggest an increase of the oceanic influence on rainfall over SESA as a result of anthropogenic forcing, which would enhance its seasonal predictability. However, these results have to be taken with caution because there is a large disparity in model behavior and thus a large uncertainty in conclusions suggested from the grand ensemble mean. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000396124400013 |
WOS关键词 | EL-NINO ; INDIAN-OCEAN ; ENSO ; ATLANTIC ; MODELS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29967 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Republica, Inst Fis, Fac Ciencias, Dept Ciencias Atmosfera, Igua 4225, Montevideo 11400, Uruguay |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Martin-Gomez, Vernica,Barreiro, Marcelo. Effect of future climate change on the coupling between the tropical oceans and precipitation over Southeastern South America[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,141(2). |
APA | Martin-Gomez, Vernica,&Barreiro, Marcelo.(2017).Effect of future climate change on the coupling between the tropical oceans and precipitation over Southeastern South America.CLIMATIC CHANGE,141(2). |
MLA | Martin-Gomez, Vernica,et al."Effect of future climate change on the coupling between the tropical oceans and precipitation over Southeastern South America".CLIMATIC CHANGE 141.2(2017). |
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