Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-016-1844-5 |
An ensemble analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality across 11 large river basins | |
Eisner, S.1,2; Floerke, M.1; Chamorro, A.3; Daggupati, P.4; Donnelly, C.5; Huang, J.6; Hundecha, Y.5; Koch, H.7; Kalugin, A.8; Krylenko, I.8,9; Mishra, V.10; Piniewski, M.7,11; Samaniego, L.12; Seidou, O.13; Wallner, M.14; Krysanova, V.7 | |
2017-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 141期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; Norway; Canada; Sweden; Peoples R China; Russia; India; Poland |
英文摘要 | The paper investigates climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality for a set of eleven representative large river basins covering all continents and a wide range of climatic and physiographic settings. Based on an ensemble of nine regional hydrological models driven by climate projections derived from five global circulation models under four representative concentration pathways, we analyzed the median and range of projected changes in seasonal streamflow by the end of the twenty-first century and examined the uncertainty arising from the different members of the modelling chain. Climate change impacts on the timing of seasonal streamflow were found to be small except for two basins. In many basins, we found an acceleration of the existing seasonality pattern, i.e. high-flows are projected to increase and/or low-flows are projected to decrease. In some basins the hydrologic projections indicate opposite directions of change which cancel out in the ensemble median, i.e., no robust conclusions could be drawn. In the majority of the basins, differences in projected streamflow seasonality between the low emission pathway and the high emission pathway are small with the exception of four basins. For these basins our results allow conclusions on the potential benefits (or adverse effects) of avoided GHG emissions for the seasonal streamflow regime. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000396824300004 |
WOS关键词 | WATER-RESOURCES ; MODELS ; VARIABILITY ; REGIMES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29966 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, Kassel, Germany; 2.Norwegian Inst Bioecon Res, As, Norway; 3.Justus Liebig Univ, Inst Landscape Ecol, Giessen, Germany; 4.Univ Guelph, Sch Engn, Guelph, ON, Canada; 5.Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Norrkoping, Sweden; 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Xinjiang, Peoples R China; 7.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany; 8.RAS, Inst Water Problems, Moscow, Russia; 9.Lomonosov Moscow State Univ, Moscow, Russia; 10.IIT, Civil Engn, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India; 11.Warsaw Univ Life Sci, Warsaw, Poland; 12.UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Leipzig, Germany; 13.Univ Ottawa, Dept Civil Engn, Ottawa, ON, Canada; 14.Fed Inst Geosci & Nat Resources, Hannover, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Eisner, S.,Floerke, M.,Chamorro, A.,et al. An ensemble analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality across 11 large river basins[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,141(3). |
APA | Eisner, S..,Floerke, M..,Chamorro, A..,Daggupati, P..,Donnelly, C..,...&Krysanova, V..(2017).An ensemble analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality across 11 large river basins.CLIMATIC CHANGE,141(3). |
MLA | Eisner, S.,et al."An ensemble analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality across 11 large river basins".CLIMATIC CHANGE 141.3(2017). |
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