GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s10584-017-2119-5
The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences
Wigley, T. M. L.1,2
2018-03-01
发表期刊CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN0165-0009
EISSN1573-1480
出版年2018
卷号147页码:31-45
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Australia; USA
英文摘要

The Paris Agreement states that, relative to pre-industrial times, the increase in global average temperature should be kept to well below 2 A degrees C and efforts should be made to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 A degrees C. Emissions scenarios consistent with these targets are derived. For an eventual 2 A degrees C warming target, this could be achieved even if CO2 emissions remained positive. For a 1.5 A degrees C target, CO2 emissions could remain positive, but only if a substantial and long-lasting temperature overshoot is accepted. In both cases, a warming overshoot of 0.2 to 0.4 A degrees C appears unavoidable. If the allowable (or unavoidable) overshoot is small, then negative emissions are almost certainly required for the 1.5 A degrees C target, peaking at negative 1.3 GtC/year. In this scenario, temperature stabilization occurs, but cumulative emissions continue to increase, contrary to a common belief regarding the relationship between temperature and cumulative emissions. Changes to the Paris Agreement to accommodate the overshoot possibility are suggested. For sea level rise, tipping points that might lead to inevitable collapse of Antarctic ice sheets or shelves might be avoided for the 2 A degrees C target (for major ice shelves) or for the 1.5 A degrees C target for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Even with the 1.5 A degrees C target, however, sea level will continue to rise at a substantial rate for centuries.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000425959700004
WOS关键词1.5-DEGREES-C ; PROJECTIONS ; POTENTIALS ; SCIENCE ; MODEL
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29956
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia;
2.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
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GB/T 7714
Wigley, T. M. L.. The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,147:31-45.
APA Wigley, T. M. L..(2018).The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences.CLIMATIC CHANGE,147,31-45.
MLA Wigley, T. M. L.."The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences".CLIMATIC CHANGE 147(2018):31-45.
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