Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2158-6 |
The implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on climate change for globally significant biodiversity areas | |
Warren, R.1,2; Price, J.1,2; VanDerWal, J.3,4; Cornelius, S.5; Sohl, H.5 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 147页码:395-409 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Australia |
英文摘要 | Climate change is already affecting species and their distributions. Distributional range changes have occurred and are projected to intensify for many widespread plants and animals, creating associated risks to many ecosystems. Here, we estimate the climate change-related risks to the species in globally significant biodiversity conservation areas over a range of climate scenarios, assessing their value as climate refugia. In particular, we quantify the aggregated benefit of countries' emission reduction pledges (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions and Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement), and also of further constraining global warming to 2 A degrees C above pre-industrial levels, against an unmitigated scenario of 4.5 A degrees C warming. We also quantify the contribution that can be made by using smart spatial conservation planning to facilitate some levels of autonomous (i.e. natural) adaptation to climate change by dispersal. We find that without mitigation, on average 33% of each conservation area can act as climate refugium (or 18% if species are unable to disperse), whereas if warming is constrained to 2 A degrees C, the average area of climate refuges doubles to 67% of each conservation area (or, without dispersal, more than doubles to 56% of each area). If the country pledges are fulfilled, an intermediate estimate of 47-52% (or 31-38%, without dispersal) is obtained. We conclude that the Nationally Determined Contributions alone have important but limited benefits for biodiversity conservation, with larger benefits accruing if warming is constrained to 2 A degrees C. Greater benefits would result if warming was constrained to well below 2 A degrees C as set out in the Paris Agreement. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000428427200003 |
WOS关键词 | TEMPERATURE EXTREMES ; ECOREGIONS ; SCENARIOS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29954 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ East Anglia, Tyndall Ctr, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England; 2.Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England; 3.James Cook Univ, Ctr Trop Biodivers & Climate Change, Townsville, Qld, Australia; 4.James Cook Univ, E Res Ctr, Townsville, Qld, Australia; 5.WWF UK, Living Planet Ctr, Rufford House,Brewery Rd, Woking GU21 4LL, Surrey, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Warren, R.,Price, J.,VanDerWal, J.,et al. The implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on climate change for globally significant biodiversity areas[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,147:395-409. |
APA | Warren, R.,Price, J.,VanDerWal, J.,Cornelius, S.,&Sohl, H..(2018).The implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on climate change for globally significant biodiversity areas.CLIMATIC CHANGE,147,395-409. |
MLA | Warren, R.,et al."The implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on climate change for globally significant biodiversity areas".CLIMATIC CHANGE 147(2018):395-409. |
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