Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2315-y |
Probabilistic reasoning about measurements of equilibrium climate sensitivity: combining disparate lines of evidence | |
Cooke, Roger M.1; Wielicki, Bruce2 | |
2018-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 151页码:541-554 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Where policy and science intersect, there are always issues of ambiguous and conflicting lines of evidence. Combining disparate information sources is mathematically complex; common heuristics based on simple statistical models easily lead us astray. Here, we use Bayesian Nets (BNs) to illustrate the complexity in reasoning under uncertainty. Data from joint research at Resources for the Future and NASA Langley are used to populate a BN for predicting equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). The information sources consist of measuring the rate of decadal temperature rise (DTR) and measuring the rate of percentage change in cloud radiative forcing (CRF), with both the existing configuration of satellites and with a proposed enhanced measuring system. The goal of all measurements is to reduce uncertainty in equilibrium climate sensitivity. Subtle aspects of probabilistic reasoning with concordant and discordant measurements are illustrated. Relative to the current prior distribution on ECS, we show that after 30years of observing with the current systems, the 2 sigma uncertainty band for ECS would be shrunk on average to 73% of its current value. With the enhanced systems over the same time, it would be shrunk to 32% of its current value. The actual shrinkage depends on the values actually observed. These results are based on models recommended by the Social Cost of Carbon methodology and assume a Business as Usual emissions path. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000452480700012 |
WOS关键词 | UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION ; BAYESIAN NETWORKS ; CLOUDS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29947 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Resources Future Inc, 1616 P St NW, Washington, DC 20036 USA; 2.NASA, Langley Res Ctr, Sci Directorate, 21 Langley Blvd, Hampton, VA 23681 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cooke, Roger M.,Wielicki, Bruce. Probabilistic reasoning about measurements of equilibrium climate sensitivity: combining disparate lines of evidence[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,151:541-554. |
APA | Cooke, Roger M.,&Wielicki, Bruce.(2018).Probabilistic reasoning about measurements of equilibrium climate sensitivity: combining disparate lines of evidence.CLIMATIC CHANGE,151,541-554. |
MLA | Cooke, Roger M.,et al."Probabilistic reasoning about measurements of equilibrium climate sensitivity: combining disparate lines of evidence".CLIMATIC CHANGE 151(2018):541-554. |
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