Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-016-1840-9 |
Tracking regional temperature projections from the early 1990s in light of variations in regional warming, including 'warming holes' | |
Grose, Michael R.1; Risbey, James S.1; Whetton, Penny H.2 | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
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ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 140期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia |
英文摘要 | The perception of the accuracy of regional climate projections made in the early 1990s about climate change by 2030 may be influenced by how the temperature trend has changed in the 25 years since their publication. However, temperature trends over this period were influenced not only by external forcings such as greenhouse gases but also natural variations. The temperature of Southern Australia, the Sahel, South Asia and Southern Europe are currently within the warming estimates from statements in the early 1990s from the IPCC and CSIRO, assuming a linear trend between 1990 and 2030. However, northern Australia and central North America are currently at the lower limit or below these projections, having featured areas of multi-year regional cooling during global warming, sometimes called 'warming holes'. Recent climate model simulations suggest that cooling can be expected in the recent past and near future in some regions, including in Australia and the US, and that cooling is less likely over 1990-2030 than in 1990-2015, bringing observations closer to the IPCC and CSIRO warming estimates by 2030. Cooling at the 25-year scale in some regions can be associated with cyclic variability such as the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation, or low trend such as in the Southern Ocean. Explicitly communicating the variability in regional warming rates in climate projections, including the possibility of regional warming 'holes' (or the opposite of 'surges' or 'peaks') would help to set more reliable expectations by users of those projections. |
英文关键词 | Regional climate change Climate variability Climate projections |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000392425900015 |
WOS关键词 | NATURAL VARIABILITY ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; UNITED-STATES ; ATTRIBUTION ; 20TH-CENTURY ; RAINFALL ; AEROSOL ; HIATUS ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29945 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Tas 7000, Australia; 2.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Grose, Michael R.,Risbey, James S.,Whetton, Penny H.. Tracking regional temperature projections from the early 1990s in light of variations in regional warming, including 'warming holes'[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,140(2). |
APA | Grose, Michael R.,Risbey, James S.,&Whetton, Penny H..(2017).Tracking regional temperature projections from the early 1990s in light of variations in regional warming, including 'warming holes'.CLIMATIC CHANGE,140(2). |
MLA | Grose, Michael R.,et al."Tracking regional temperature projections from the early 1990s in light of variations in regional warming, including 'warming holes'".CLIMATIC CHANGE 140.2(2017). |
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