Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.2008590117 |
Seasonality and uncertainty in global COVID-19 growth rates | |
Cory Merow; Mark C. Urban | |
2020-10-15 | |
发表期刊 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | The virus causing COVID-19 has spread rapidly worldwide and threatens millions of lives. It remains unknown, as of April 2020, whether summer weather will reduce its spread, thereby alleviating strains on hospitals and providing time for vaccine development. Early insights from laboratory studies and research on related viruses predicted that COVID-19 would decline with higher temperatures, humidity, and ultraviolet (UV) light. Using current, fine-scaled weather data and global reports of infections, we develop a model that explains 36% of the variation in maximum COVID-19 growth rates based on weather and demography (17%) and country-specific effects (19%). UV light is most strongly associated with lower COVID-19 growth. Projections suggest that, without intervention, COVID-19 will decrease temporarily during summer, rebound by autumn, and peak next winter. Validation based on data from May and June 2020 confirms the generality of the climate signal detected. However, uncertainty remains high, and the probability of weekly doubling rates remains >20% throughout summer in the absence of social interventions. Consequently, aggressive interventions will likely be needed despite seasonal trends. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
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文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/299300 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cory Merow,Mark C. Urban. Seasonality and uncertainty in global COVID-19 growth rates[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2020. |
APA | Cory Merow,&Mark C. Urban.(2020).Seasonality and uncertainty in global COVID-19 growth rates.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. |
MLA | Cory Merow,et al."Seasonality and uncertainty in global COVID-19 growth rates".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2020). |
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