Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020GL090328 |
Seasonal Forecasts of the Exceptional Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2020 | |
Simon H. Lee; Zachary D. Lawrence; Amy H. Butler; Alexey Y. Karpechko | |
2020-10-17 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters |
出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | The winter of 2019‐20 was dominated by an extremely strong stratospheric polar vortex and positive tropospheric Arctic Oscillation (AO). Here, we analyze forecasts from 6 different prediction systems contributing to the C3S seasonal forecast database. Most performed very strongly, with consistently high skill for January‐‐March 2020 from forecasts launched through October‐‐December 2019. Although the magnitude of the anomalies was underestimated, the performance of most prediction systems was extremely high for a positive AO winter relative to the common hindcast climate. Ensemble members which better predicted the extremely strong stratospheric vortex better predicted the extreme tropospheric state. We find a significant relationship between forecasts of the anomalous mid‐latitude tropospheric wave pattern in early winter, which destructively interfered with the climatological stationary waves, and the strength of the stratospheric vortex later in the winter. Our results demonstrate a strong interdependence between the accuracy of stratospheric vortex and AO forecasts. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/299227 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Simon H. Lee,Zachary D. Lawrence,Amy H. Butler,et al. Seasonal Forecasts of the Exceptional Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2020[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2020. |
APA | Simon H. Lee,Zachary D. Lawrence,Amy H. Butler,&Alexey Y. Karpechko.(2020).Seasonal Forecasts of the Exceptional Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2020.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | Simon H. Lee,et al."Seasonal Forecasts of the Exceptional Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2020".Geophysical Research Letters (2020). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论