Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020GL089974 |
Detectability of an AMOC decline in current and projected climate changes | |
D. Lobelle; C. Beaulieu; V. Livina; F. Sevellec; E. Frajka‐; Williams | |
2020-10-17 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters
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出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | Determining whether the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)'s transport is in decline is challenging due to the short duration of continuous observations. To estimate how many years are needed to detect a decline, we conduct a simulation study using synthetic data that mimics an AMOC time series. The time series' characteristics are reproduced using the trend, variance, and autocorrelation coefficient of the AMOC strength at 26.5°,N from 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models under the RCP8.5 future scenario, and from RAPID observations (2004‐‐2018). Our results suggest that the 14‐year RAPID length has just entered the lower limits of the trend’s `detection window’ based on synthetic data generated using CMIP5 trends and variability (14‐‐42 years; median = 24 years), but twice the length is required for detectability based on RAPID variability (29‐‐67 years; median = 43 years). The annual RAPID trend is currently not statistically significant (‐0.11 Sv yr‐1, p>0.05). |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/299218 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | D. Lobelle,C. Beaulieu,V. Livina,et al. Detectability of an AMOC decline in current and projected climate changes[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2020. |
APA | D. Lobelle,C. Beaulieu,V. Livina,F. Sevellec,E. Frajka‐,&Williams.(2020).Detectability of an AMOC decline in current and projected climate changes.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | D. Lobelle,et al."Detectability of an AMOC decline in current and projected climate changes".Geophysical Research Letters (2020). |
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