Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-1947-7 |
Groundwater depletion and climate change: future prospects of crop production in the Central High Plains Aquifer | |
Cotterman, Kayla A.1; Kendall, Anthony D.1; Basso, Bruno1,2; Hyndman, David W.1 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 146页码:187-200 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Crop production in the Central High Plains is at an all-time high due to increased demand for biofuels, food, and animal products. Despite the need to produce more food by mid-century to meet expected population growth, under current management and genetics, crop production is likely to plateau or decline in the Central High Plains due to groundwater withdrawal at rates that greatly exceed recharge to the aquifer. The Central High Plains has experienced a consistent decline in groundwater storage due to groundwater withdrawal for irrigation greatly exceeding natural recharge. In this heavily irrigated region, water is essential to maintain yields and economic stability. Here, we evaluate how current trends in irrigation demand may impact groundwater depletion and quantify the impacts of these changes on crop yield and production through to 2099 using the well-established System Approach to Land Use Sustainability (SALUS) crop model. The results show that status quo groundwater management will likely reduce irrigated corn acreage by similar to 60% and wheat acreage by similar to 50%. This widespread forced shift to dryland farming, coupled with the likely effects of climate change, will contribute to overall changes in crop production. Taking into account both changes in yield and available irrigated acreage, corn production would decrease by approximately 60%, while production of wheat would remain fairly steady with a slight increase of about 2%. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000423707600016 |
WOS关键词 | AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION ; CO2 CONCENTRATIONS ; IRRIGATION ; IMPACTS ; STABILIZATION ; PRECIPITATION ; REQUIREMENTS ; UNCERTAINTY ; TEMPERATURE ; MITIGATION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29867 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Michigan State Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA; 2.Michigan State Univ, WK Kellogg Biol Stn, Hickory Corners, MI 49060 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cotterman, Kayla A.,Kendall, Anthony D.,Basso, Bruno,et al. Groundwater depletion and climate change: future prospects of crop production in the Central High Plains Aquifer[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,146:187-200. |
APA | Cotterman, Kayla A.,Kendall, Anthony D.,Basso, Bruno,&Hyndman, David W..(2018).Groundwater depletion and climate change: future prospects of crop production in the Central High Plains Aquifer.CLIMATIC CHANGE,146,187-200. |
MLA | Cotterman, Kayla A.,et al."Groundwater depletion and climate change: future prospects of crop production in the Central High Plains Aquifer".CLIMATIC CHANGE 146(2018):187-200. |
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