Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2258-3 |
Attributing high-impact extreme events across timescales-a case study of four different types of events | |
Otto, Friederike E. L.1; Philip, Sjoukje2; Kew, Sarah2; Li, Sihan1; King, Andrew3,4; Cullen, Heidi5 | |
2018-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 149页码:399-412 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Netherlands; Australia; USA |
英文摘要 | Increasing likelihoods of extreme weather events is the most noticeable and damaging manifestation of anthropogenic climate change. In the aftermath of an extreme event, policy makers are often called upon to make timely and sensitive decisions about rebuilding and managing present and future risks. Information regarding whether, where and how present-day and future risks are changing is needed to adequately inform these decisions. But, this information is often not available and when it is, it is often not presented in a systematic way. Here, we demonstrate a seamless approach to the science of extreme event attribution and future risk assessment by using the same set of model ensembles to provide such information on past, present and future hazard risks in four case studies on different types of events. Given the current relevance, we focus on estimating the change in future hazard risk under 1.5 A degrees C and 2 A degrees C of global mean temperature rise. We find that this approach not only addresses important decision-making gaps, but also improves the robustness of future risk assessment and attribution statements alike. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000443398900009 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE ; PRECIPITATION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29863 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, South Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3QY, England; 2.Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst KNMI, R&D Weather & Climate Models, De Bilt, Netherlands; 3.Univ Melbourne, Sch Earth Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 4.Univ Melbourne, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 5.Climate Cent, Princeton, NJ USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Otto, Friederike E. L.,Philip, Sjoukje,Kew, Sarah,et al. Attributing high-impact extreme events across timescales-a case study of four different types of events[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,149:399-412. |
APA | Otto, Friederike E. L.,Philip, Sjoukje,Kew, Sarah,Li, Sihan,King, Andrew,&Cullen, Heidi.(2018).Attributing high-impact extreme events across timescales-a case study of four different types of events.CLIMATIC CHANGE,149,399-412. |
MLA | Otto, Friederike E. L.,et al."Attributing high-impact extreme events across timescales-a case study of four different types of events".CLIMATIC CHANGE 149(2018):399-412. |
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