Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2161-y |
Probabilistic assessment of projected climatological drought characteristics over the Southeast USA | |
Mitra, Subhasis1; Srivastava, Puneet2; Lamba, Jasmeet2 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 147页码:601-615 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | India; USA |
英文摘要 | The study makes a probabilistic assessment of drought risks due to climate change over the southeast USA based on 15 Global Circulation Model (GCM) simulations and two emission scenarios. The effects of climate change on drought characteristics such as drought intensity, frequency, areal extent, and duration are investigated using the seasonal and continuous standard precipitation index (SPI) and the standard evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The GCM data are divided into four time periods namely Historical (1961-1990), Near (2010-2039), Mid (2040-2069), and Late (2070-2099), and significant differences between historical and future time periods are quantified using the mapping model agreement technique. Further, the kernel density estimation approach is used to derive a novel probability-based severity-area-frequency (PBS) curve for the study domain. Analysis suggests that future increases in temperature and evapotranspiration will outstrip increases in precipitation and significantly affect future droughts over the study domain. Seasonal drought analysis suggest that the summer season will be impacted the most based on SPI and SPEI. Projections based on SPI follow precipitation patterns and fewer GCMs agree on SPI and the direction of change compared to the SPEI. Long-term and extreme drought events are projected to be affected more than short-term and moderate ones. Based on an analysis of PBS curves, especially based on SPEI, droughts are projected to become more severe in the future. The development of PBS curves is a novel feature in this study and will provide policymakers with important tools for analyzing future drought risks, vulnerabilities and help build drought resilience. The PBS curves can be replicated for studies around the world for drought assessment under climate change. |
英文关键词 | Droughts GCM Kernel density estimator Probability-based SAF curves Southeast USA |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000428427200016 |
WOS关键词 | FLINT RIVER-BASIN ; UNITED-STATES ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; GLOBAL DROUGHT ; 20TH-CENTURY ; ENSEMBLE ; IMPACTS ; TRENDS ; CHINA |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29836 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Indian Inst Technol Palakkad, Dept Civil Engn, Ahalia Integrated Campus, Kozhipara 678557, Kerela, India; 2.Auburn Univ, Biosyst Engn, Tom E Corley Bldg, Auburn, AL 36849 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mitra, Subhasis,Srivastava, Puneet,Lamba, Jasmeet. Probabilistic assessment of projected climatological drought characteristics over the Southeast USA[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,147:601-615. |
APA | Mitra, Subhasis,Srivastava, Puneet,&Lamba, Jasmeet.(2018).Probabilistic assessment of projected climatological drought characteristics over the Southeast USA.CLIMATIC CHANGE,147,601-615. |
MLA | Mitra, Subhasis,et al."Probabilistic assessment of projected climatological drought characteristics over the Southeast USA".CLIMATIC CHANGE 147(2018):601-615. |
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