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DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2244-9 |
Sensitivity of streamflow to climate change in California | |
Grantham, Theodore E. W.1; Carlisle, Daren M.2; McCabe, Gregory J.3; Howard, Jeanette K.4 | |
2018-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 149页码:427-441 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Climate change is rapidly altering the global water cycle, exposing vulnerabilities in both social and environmental systems. However, uncertainty in future climate predictions makes it difficult to design and evaluate strategies for building climate resilience. In regions such as California, characterized by stressed water-supply systems, high natural climate variability, and substantial uncertainty in future precipitation projections, alternative approaches to assessing climate risks may be useful. Here, we develop a hydrologic sensitivity approach to estimate regional streamflow responses to climate change in California. We use statistical models to predict monthly streamflow from physical catchment features and evaluate how flow changes with incremental changes in precipitation and temperature. The results indicate unique regional and monthly flow responses to climate change, with early summer flows (May-July) in interior mountain region having the greatest sensitivity to temperature and winter flows (December-March) in the xeric region having the greatest sensitivity to precipitation. When evaluated over the range of global climate model projections for mid-century (2040-2069), models generally suggest shifts in streamflow regimes towards higher wet season flows and lower dry season flows relative to historical conditions. The sensitivity analysis provides insight into catchment- and regional-scale hydrologic responses in California and complements other approaches for understanding the consequences of climatic change for water and risk management. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000443398900011 |
WOS关键词 | HYDROLOGIC SENSITIVITIES ; WATER-RESOURCES ; PRECIPITATION ; PROJECTIONS ; RUNOFF ; RISK |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29833 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Environm Sci Policy & Management, 130 Mulford Hall 3114, Berkeley, CA 94702 USA; 2.US Geol Survey, Natl Water Qual Program, 4821 Quail Crest Pl, Lawrence, KS 66049 USA; 3.US Geol Survey, MS 412, Denver, CO 80225 USA; 4.Nature Conservancy, 201 Mission St,4th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Grantham, Theodore E. W.,Carlisle, Daren M.,McCabe, Gregory J.,et al. Sensitivity of streamflow to climate change in California[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,149:427-441. |
APA | Grantham, Theodore E. W.,Carlisle, Daren M.,McCabe, Gregory J.,&Howard, Jeanette K..(2018).Sensitivity of streamflow to climate change in California.CLIMATIC CHANGE,149,427-441. |
MLA | Grantham, Theodore E. W.,et al."Sensitivity of streamflow to climate change in California".CLIMATIC CHANGE 149(2018):427-441. |
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