Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-016-1894-8 |
Is the future of large shallow lakes blue-green? Comparing the response of a catchment-lake model chain to climate predictions | |
Cremona, Fabien1; Vilbaste, Sirje1; Couture, Raoul-Marie2,3,4; Noges, Peeter1; Noges, Tiina1 | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 141期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Estonia; Norway; Canada |
英文摘要 | We constructed a model chain into which regional climate-related variables (air temperature, precipitation) and a lake's main tributary hydrological indicators (river flow, dissolved inorganic carbon) were employed for predicting the evolution of planktonic blue-green algae (cyanobacteria) and zooplankton (rotifer) biomass in that lake for the mid-21st century. Simulations were based on the future climate predicted under both the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios which, combined with three realistic policy-making and basin land-use evolution lead to six scenarios for future water quality. Model outputs revealed that mean annual river flow is expected to decline between 3 and 20%, depending on the scenario. Concentration of river dissolved inorganic carbon is predicted to follow the opposite trend and might soar up to twice the 2005-2014 average concentration. Lake planktonic primary producers will display quantitative changes in the future decades whereas zooplankters will not. A 2 to 10% increase in mean cyanobacteria biomass is accompanied by a stagnation (-3 to +2%) of rotifer biomass. Changes in cyanobacteria and rotifer phenology are expected: a surge of cyanobacteria biomass in winter and a shortening of the rotifer biomass spring peak. The expected quantitative changes on the biota were magnified in those scenarios where forested area conversions to cropland and water abstraction were the greatest. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000396124400015 |
WOS关键词 | MULTIPLE STRESS ; WATER-LEVEL ; FRESH-WATER ; IMPACTS ; CARBON ; VORTSJARV ; CYANOBACTERIA ; TEMPERATURE ; DYNAMICS ; BLOOMS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29828 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Estonian Univ Life Sci, Ctr Limnol, Inst Agr & Environm Sci, Kreutzwaldi 5, EE-51014 Tartu, Estonia; 2.Norwegian Inst Water Res, Gaustadalleen 21, N-0349 Oslo, Norway; 3.Univ Waterloo, Ecohydrol Res Grp, Water Inst, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada; 4.Univ Waterloo, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cremona, Fabien,Vilbaste, Sirje,Couture, Raoul-Marie,et al. Is the future of large shallow lakes blue-green? Comparing the response of a catchment-lake model chain to climate predictions[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,141(2). |
APA | Cremona, Fabien,Vilbaste, Sirje,Couture, Raoul-Marie,Noges, Peeter,&Noges, Tiina.(2017).Is the future of large shallow lakes blue-green? Comparing the response of a catchment-lake model chain to climate predictions.CLIMATIC CHANGE,141(2). |
MLA | Cremona, Fabien,et al."Is the future of large shallow lakes blue-green? Comparing the response of a catchment-lake model chain to climate predictions".CLIMATIC CHANGE 141.2(2017). |
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