Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-2033-x |
Climate impacts on agricultural land use in the USA: the role of socio-economic scenarios | |
Mu, Jianhong E.1; Sleeter, Benjamin M.2; Abatzoglou, John T.3; Antle, John M.4 | |
2017-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
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ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 144期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | We examine the impacts of climate on net returns from crop and livestock production and the resulting impact on land-use change across the contiguous USA. We first estimate an econometric model to project effects of weather fluctuations on crop and livestock net returns and then use a semi-reduced form land-use share model to study agricultural land-use changes under future climate and socio-economic scenarios. Estimation results show that crop net returns are more sensitive to thermal and less sensitive to moisture variability than livestock net returns; other agricultural land uses substitute cropland use when 30-year averaged degree-days or precipitation are not beneficial for crop production. Under future climate and socio-economic scenarios, we project that crop and livestock net returns are both increasing, but with crop net returns increasing at a higher rate; cropland increases with declines of marginal and pastureland by the end of the twenty-first century. Projections also show that impacts of future climate on agricultural land uses are substantially different and a larger variation of land-use change is evident when socio-economic scenarios are incorporated into the climate impact analysis. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000409001300018 |
WOS关键词 | UNITED-STATES ; RANDOM FLUCTUATIONS ; ECONOMIC-IMPACTS ; ADAPTATION ; WEATHER ; OUTPUT ; DECISIONS ; EMISSIONS ; SYSTEMS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29825 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Oklahoma, Dept Geog & Environm Sustainabil, Norman, OK 73019 USA; 2.US Geol Survey, Western Geog Sci Ctr, 345 Middlefield Rd, Menlo Pk, CA 94025 USA; 3.Univ Idaho, Dept Geog, Moscow, ID 83844 USA; 4.Oregon State Univ, Dept Appl Econ, Corvallis, OR 97330 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mu, Jianhong E.,Sleeter, Benjamin M.,Abatzoglou, John T.,et al. Climate impacts on agricultural land use in the USA: the role of socio-economic scenarios[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,144(2). |
APA | Mu, Jianhong E.,Sleeter, Benjamin M.,Abatzoglou, John T.,&Antle, John M..(2017).Climate impacts on agricultural land use in the USA: the role of socio-economic scenarios.CLIMATIC CHANGE,144(2). |
MLA | Mu, Jianhong E.,et al."Climate impacts on agricultural land use in the USA: the role of socio-economic scenarios".CLIMATIC CHANGE 144.2(2017). |
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