Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2300-5 |
Future evolution of extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean | |
Tramblay, Yves1; Somot, Samuel2 | |
2018-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 151期号:2页码:289-302 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France |
英文摘要 | Mediterranean basins can be impacted by severe floods caused by extreme rainfall, and there is a growing awareness about the possible increase in these heavy rainfall events due to climate change. In this study, the climate change impacts on extreme daily precipitation in 102 catchments covering the whole Mediterranean basin are investigated using nonstationary extreme value model applied to annual maximum precipitation in an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the Euro-CORDEX experiment. Results indicate contrasted trends, with significant increasing trends in Northern catchments and conversely decreasing trends in Southern catchments. For most cases, the time of signal emergence for these trends is before the year 2000. The same spatial pattern is obtained under the two climate scenarios considered (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and in most RCM simulations, suggesting a robust climate change signal. The strongest multi-model agreement concerns the positive trends, which can exceed +20% by the end of the twenty-first century in some simulations, impacting South France, North Italy, and the Balkans. For these areas, society-relevant strong impacts of such Mediterranean extreme precipitation changes could be expected in particular concerning flood-related damages. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000451021600014 |
WOS关键词 | HEAVY PRECIPITATION ; ANNUAL MAXIMUM ; IMPACT ; PROJECTIONS ; RAINFALL ; INDEXES ; TRENDS ; CORDEX ; VALUES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29815 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, HSM, Montpellier, France; 2.Univ Toulouse, CNRS, Meteo France, CNRS, Toulouse, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tramblay, Yves,Somot, Samuel. Future evolution of extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,151(2):289-302. |
APA | Tramblay, Yves,&Somot, Samuel.(2018).Future evolution of extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean.CLIMATIC CHANGE,151(2),289-302. |
MLA | Tramblay, Yves,et al."Future evolution of extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean".CLIMATIC CHANGE 151.2(2018):289-302. |
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