资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

We assess the effective radiative forcing due to ozone‐depleting substances using models participating in the Aerosols and Chemistry and Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Projects (AerChemMIP, RFMIP). A large inter‐model spread in this globally averaged quantity necessitates an ``emergent constraint" approach whereby we link the radiative forcing to ozone declines measured and simulated during 1979‐2000, excluding two volcanically perturbed periods. During this period ozone‐depleting substances were increasing, and several merged satellite‐based climatologies document the ensuing decline of total‐column ozone. Using these analyses we find an effective radiative forcing of ‐0.05 to 0.13 Wm<sup>‐2</sup>. Our best estimate (0.04 Wm<sup>‐2</sup>) is on the edge of the ``likely" range given by the 5^th Assessment Report of IPCC of 0.03 to 0.33 Wm^‐2, but is in better agreement} with two other literature results.