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DOI | 10.1175/JAS-D-17-0157.1 |
Practical and Intrinsic Predictability of Multiscale Weather and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves during the Active Phase of an MJO | |
Ying, Yue; Zhang, Fuqing1 | |
2017-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES |
ISSN | 0022-4928 |
EISSN | 1520-0469 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 74期号:11 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Through a series of convection-permitting regional-scale ensembles based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, this study investigates the predictability of multiscale weather and convectively coupled equatorial waves during the active phase of a Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) event over the Indian Ocean from 12 October to 12 November 2011. It is found that the practical predictability limit, estimated by the spread of the ensemble perturbed with realistic initial and boundary uncertainties, is as much as 8 days for horizontal winds, temperature, and humidity for scales larger than 2000 km that include equatorial Rossby, Kelvin, inertia-gravity, and mixed Rossby-gravity waves. The practical predictability limit decreases rapidly as scale decreases, resulting in a predictable time scale less than 1 day for scales smaller than 200 km. Through further experiments using minute initial and boundary perturbations an order of magnitude smaller than the current realistic uncertainties, the intrinsic predictability limit for tropical weather at larger scales (>2000 km) is estimated to be achievable beyond 2 weeks, but the limit is likely still less than 3 days for the small scales (<200 km). |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000417994800014 |
WOS关键词 | MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; MOIST BAROCLINIC WAVES ; MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY ; ERROR GROWTH ; ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTABILITY ; INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY ; DATA ASSIMILATION ; FORECAST SKILL ; GRAVITY-WAVES ; PART I |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29770 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol & Atmospher Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 2.Penn State Univ, Ctr Adv Data Assimilat & Predictabil Techn, University Pk, PA 16802 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ying, Yue,Zhang, Fuqing. Practical and Intrinsic Predictability of Multiscale Weather and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves during the Active Phase of an MJO[J]. JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2017,74(11). |
APA | Ying, Yue,&Zhang, Fuqing.(2017).Practical and Intrinsic Predictability of Multiscale Weather and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves during the Active Phase of an MJO.JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,74(11). |
MLA | Ying, Yue,et al."Practical and Intrinsic Predictability of Multiscale Weather and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves during the Active Phase of an MJO".JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 74.11(2017). |
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