Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/ele.13603 |
Phenological asynchrony: a ticking time‐bomb for seemingly stable populations? | |
Emily G. Simmonds; Ella F. Cole; Ben C. Sheldon; Tim Coulson | |
2020-09-25 | |
发表期刊 | Ecology Letters |
出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | Climate change has been shown to induce shifts in the timing of life‐history events. As a result, interactions between species can become disrupted, with potentially detrimental effects. Predicting these consequences has proven challenging. We apply structured population models to a well‐characterised great tit‐caterpillar model system and identify thresholds of temporal asynchrony, beyond which the predator population will rapidly go extinct. Our model suggests that phenotypic plasticity in predator breeding timing initially maintains temporal synchrony in the face of environmental change. However, under projections of climate change, predator plasticity was insufficient to keep pace with prey phenology. Directional evolution then accelerated, but could not prevent mismatch. Once predator phenology lagged behind prey by more than 24 days, rapid extinction was inevitable, despite previously stable population dynamics. Our projections suggest that current population stability could be masking a route to population collapse, if high greenhouse gas emissions continue. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/296399 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Emily G. Simmonds,Ella F. Cole,Ben C. Sheldon,等. Phenological asynchrony: a ticking time‐bomb for seemingly stable populations?[J]. Ecology Letters,2020. |
APA | Emily G. Simmonds,Ella F. Cole,Ben C. Sheldon,&Tim Coulson.(2020).Phenological asynchrony: a ticking time‐bomb for seemingly stable populations?.Ecology Letters. |
MLA | Emily G. Simmonds,et al."Phenological asynchrony: a ticking time‐bomb for seemingly stable populations?".Ecology Letters (2020). |
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