资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Does water shortage incentivize cooperation? Case studies suggests that water scarcity can rarely, if at all, explain violence, instead such shortages rather facilitate cooperative actions around water. Another major argument from qualitative research holds that water scarcity and armed conflict often occur side by side. These insights have rarely been tested empirically across cases on a sub-national level. Earlier quantitative work instead focused on basin or state level interactions. This article fills these gaps by using disaggregated data to analyze the effect of water scarcity on incidences of domestic water cooperation. Using event data covering the Mediterranean area and Northern Africa (1997–2009), this article first shows that water-related actions, cooperative or conflictual, in general are more frequent in water scarce areas. Second, the analysis demonstrates that water cooperation occurs in areas with difficult access to groundwater and with a history of violence. Third, the findings suggest that the relationship between water scarcity and water cooperation is conditional on levels of democracy. The presented results also differ depending on whether state or non-state actors collaborate in domestic water initiatives. Taken together, these findings provide crucial insights to our understanding of environmental peacebuilding and water security.