Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | DOI10.1088/1748-9326/aba97d |
Climate has contrasting direct and indirect effects on armed conflicts | |
David Helman; Benjamin F Zaitchik; Chris Funk | |
2020-09-24 | |
发表期刊 | Environmental Research Letters
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出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | There is an active debate regarding the influence that climate has on the risk of armed conflict, which stems from challenges in assembling unbiased datasets, competing hypotheses on the mechanisms of climate influence, and the difficulty of disentangling direct and indirect climate effects. We use gridded historical non-state conflict records, satellite data, and land surface models in a structural equation modeling approach to uncover the direct and indirect effects of climate on violent conflicts in Africa and the Middle East (ME). We show that climate–conflict linkages in these regions are more complex than previously suggested, with multiple mechanisms at work. Warm temperatures and low rainfall direct effects on conflict risk were stronger than indirect effects through food and water supplies. Warming increases the risk of violence in Africa but unexpectedly decreases this risk in the ME. Furthermore, at the country level, warming decreases the risk of violence in most West African countries. Overall, we find a non-linear response of conflict to warming across countries that depends on the local temperature conditions. We further show that magnitude and sign of the effects largely depend on the scale of analysis and geographical context. These results imply that extreme caution should be exerted when attempting to explain or project local climate–conflict relationships based on a single, generalized theory. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/296328 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | David Helman,Benjamin F Zaitchik,Chris Funk. Climate has contrasting direct and indirect effects on armed conflicts[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2020. |
APA | David Helman,Benjamin F Zaitchik,&Chris Funk.(2020).Climate has contrasting direct and indirect effects on armed conflicts.Environmental Research Letters. |
MLA | David Helman,et al."Climate has contrasting direct and indirect effects on armed conflicts".Environmental Research Letters (2020). |
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