Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | DOI10.1088/1748-9326/abae9e |
Increasing concurrence of wildfire drivers tripled megafire critical danger days in Southern California between1982 and 2018 | |
Mohammad Sadegh Khorshidi; Philip E Dennison; Mohammad Reza Nikoo; Amir AghaKouchak; Charles H Luce; Mojtaba Sadegh | |
2020-09-18 | |
发表期刊 | Environmental Research Letters |
出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | Wildfire danger is often ascribed to increased temperature, decreased humidity, drier fuels, or higher wind speed. However, the concurrence of drivers—defined as climate, meteorological and biophysical factors that enable fire growth—is rarely tested for commonly used fire danger indices or climate change studies. Treating causal factors as independent additive influences can lead to inaccurate inferences about shifting hazards if the factors interact as a series of switches that collectively modulate fire growth. As evidence, we show that in Southern California very large fires and 'megafires' are more strongly associated with multiple drivers exceeding moderate thresholds concurrently, rather than direct relationships with extreme magnitudes of individual drivers or additive combinations of those drivers. Days with concurrent fire drivers exceeding thresholds have increased more rapidly over the past four decades than individual drivers, leading to a tripling of annual 'megafire critical danger days'. Assessments of changing wildfire risks should explicitly address concurrence of fire drivers to provide a more precise assessment of this hazard in the face of a changing climate. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/296325 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mohammad Sadegh Khorshidi,Philip E Dennison,Mohammad Reza Nikoo,et al. Increasing concurrence of wildfire drivers tripled megafire critical danger days in Southern California between1982 and 2018[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2020. |
APA | Mohammad Sadegh Khorshidi,Philip E Dennison,Mohammad Reza Nikoo,Amir AghaKouchak,Charles H Luce,&Mojtaba Sadegh.(2020).Increasing concurrence of wildfire drivers tripled megafire critical danger days in Southern California between1982 and 2018.Environmental Research Letters. |
MLA | Mohammad Sadegh Khorshidi,et al."Increasing concurrence of wildfire drivers tripled megafire critical danger days in Southern California between1982 and 2018".Environmental Research Letters (2020). |
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