Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe

doi:10.1126/science.abc5096

GSTDTAP > 气候变化

DOI	10.1126/science.abc5096
	Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe
	N. W. Ruktanonchai; J. R. Floyd; S. Lai; C. W. Ruktanonchai; A. Sadilek; P. Rente-Lourenco; X. Ben; A. Carioli; J. Gwinn; J. E. Steele; O. Prosper; A. Schneider; A. Oplinger; P. Eastham; A. J. Tatem
	2020-09-18
发表期刊	Science
出版年	2020
英文摘要	Even during a pandemic, all countries—even islands—are dependent in one way or another on their neighbors. Without coordinated relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) among the most closely connected countries, it is difficult to envisage maintaining control of infectious viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Ruktanonchai et al. used mobility data from smartphones to estimate movements between administrative units across Europe before and after the implementation of NPIs for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Modeling disease dynamics under alternative scenarios of countries releasing NPIs, in particular stay-at-home orders, showed that if countries do not coordinate their NPIs when they relax lockdown, resurgence of disease occurs sooner. Coordination of on-off NPIs would significantly increase their effectiveness at reducing transmission across Europe. Science , this issue p. [1465][1] As rates of new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases decline across Europe owing to nonpharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing policies and lockdown measures, countries require guidance on how to ease restrictions while minimizing the risk of resurgent outbreaks. We use mobility and case data to quantify how coordinated exit strategies could delay continental resurgence and limit community transmission of COVID-19. We find that a resurgent continental epidemic could occur as many as 5 weeks earlier when well-connected countries with stringent existing interventions end their interventions prematurely. Further, we find that appropriate coordination can greatly improve the likelihood of eliminating community transmission throughout Europe. In particular, synchronizing intermittent lockdowns across Europe means that half as many lockdown periods would be required to end continent-wide community transmission. [1]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.abc5096
领域	气候变化 ; 资源环境
URL	查看原文
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/295424
专题	气候变化资源环境科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	N. W. Ruktanonchai,J. R. Floyd,S. Lai,et al. Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe[J]. Science,2020.
APA	N. W. Ruktanonchai.,J. R. Floyd.,S. Lai.,C. W. Ruktanonchai.,A. Sadilek.,...&A. J. Tatem.(2020).Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe.Science.
MLA	N. W. Ruktanonchai,et al."Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe".Science (2020).