Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020GL088986 |
Model forecast error correction based on the Local Dynamical Analog method: an example application to the ENSO forecast by an Intermediate Coupled Model | |
Zhaolu Hou; Bin Zuo; Shaoqing Zhang; Fei Huang; Ruiqiang Ding; Wansuo Duan; Jianping Li | |
2020-09-14 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters
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出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | Numerical forecasts always have associated errors. Analogue correction methods combine numerical simulations with statistical analyses to reduce model forecast errors. However, identifying appropriate analogues remains a challenging task. Here, we use the Local Dynamical Analog (LDA) method to locate analogues and correct model forecast errors. As an example, an ENSO intermediate coupled model forecast error correction experiment confirms that the LDA method locates high quality analogues of states of interest and improves the model forecast performance, which is due to the initial and evolution information included in the LDA method. In addition, the LDA method can be applied using a scalar time series, which reduces the complexity of the dynamical system. The LDA method is a promising method to locate dynamic analogs and can be applied to existing numerical models and forecast results. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/295292 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhaolu Hou,Bin Zuo,Shaoqing Zhang,et al. Model forecast error correction based on the Local Dynamical Analog method: an example application to the ENSO forecast by an Intermediate Coupled Model[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2020. |
APA | Zhaolu Hou.,Bin Zuo.,Shaoqing Zhang.,Fei Huang.,Ruiqiang Ding.,...&Jianping Li.(2020).Model forecast error correction based on the Local Dynamical Analog method: an example application to the ENSO forecast by an Intermediate Coupled Model.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | Zhaolu Hou,et al."Model forecast error correction based on the Local Dynamical Analog method: an example application to the ENSO forecast by an Intermediate Coupled Model".Geophysical Research Letters (2020). |
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