Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.5194/acp-18-15471-2018 |
The potential effects of climate change on air quality across the conterminous US at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways | |
Nolte, Christopher G.1; Spero, Tanya L.1; Bowden, Jared H.2; Mallard, Megan S.1; Dolwick, Patrick D.3 | |
2018-10-29 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS |
ISSN | 1680-7316 |
EISSN | 1680-7324 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 18期号:20页码:15471-15489 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The potential impacts of climate change on regional ozone (O-3) and fine particulate (PM2.5) air quality in the United States (US) are investigated by linking global climate simulations with regional-scale meteorological and chemical transport models. Regional climate at 2000 and at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) is simulated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscale 11-year time slices from the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The downscaled meteorology is then used with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to simulate air quality during each of these 11-year periods. The analysis isolates the future air quality differences arising from climate-driven changes in meteorological parameters and specific natural emissions sources that are strongly influenced by meteorology. Other factors that will affect future air quality, such as anthropogenic air pollutant emissions and chemical boundary conditions, are unchanged across the simulations. The regional climate fields represent historical daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures well, with mean biases of less than 2 K for most regions of the US and most seasons of the year and good representation of variability. Precipitation in the central and eastern US is well simulated for the historical period, with seasonal and annual biases generally less than 25 %, with positive biases exceeding 25 % in the western US throughout the year and in part of the eastern US during summer. Maximum daily 8 h ozone (MDA8 O-3) is projected to increase during summer and autumn in the central and eastern US. The increase in summer mean MDA8 O-3 is largest under RCP8.5, exceeding 4 ppb in some locations, with smaller seasonal mean increases of up to 2 ppb simulated during autumn and changes during spring generally less than 1 ppb. Increases are magnified at the upper end of the O-3 distribution, particularly where projected increases in temperature are greater. Annual average PM2.5 concentration changes range from -1.0 to 1.0 mu g m(-3). Organic PM2. 5 concentrations increase during summer and autumn due to increased biogenic emissions. Aerosol nitrate decreases during winter, accompanied by lesser decreases in ammonium and sulfate, due to warmer temperatures causing increased partitioning to the gas phase. Among meteorological factors examined to account for modeled changes in pollution, temperature and isoprene emissions are found to have the largest changes and the greatest impact on O-3 concentrations. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000448591500001 |
WOS关键词 | PARTICULATE MATTER PM2.5 ; NEAR-SURFACE OZONE ; UNITED-STATES ; FUTURE CLIMATE ; ISOPRENE EMISSION ; SUMMERTIME OZONE ; MODEL ; POLLUTION ; IMPACTS ; SIMULATIONS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29522 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.US EPA, Off Res & Dev, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA; 2.North Carolina State Univ, Dept Appl Ecol, Raleigh, NC USA; 3.US EPA, Off Air Qual Planning & Stand, Res Triangle Pk, NC USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nolte, Christopher G.,Spero, Tanya L.,Bowden, Jared H.,et al. The potential effects of climate change on air quality across the conterminous US at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2018,18(20):15471-15489. |
APA | Nolte, Christopher G.,Spero, Tanya L.,Bowden, Jared H.,Mallard, Megan S.,&Dolwick, Patrick D..(2018).The potential effects of climate change on air quality across the conterminous US at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,18(20),15471-15489. |
MLA | Nolte, Christopher G.,et al."The potential effects of climate change on air quality across the conterminous US at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 18.20(2018):15471-15489. |
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