Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ab97c9 |
Controls of the transient climate response to emissions by physical feedbacks, heat uptake and carbon cycling | |
Richard G Williams; Paulo Ceppi; Anna Katavouta | |
2020-09-11 | |
发表期刊 | Environmental Research Letters |
出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | The surface warming response to carbon emissions is diagnosed using a suite of Earth system models, 9 CMIP6 and 7 CMIP5, following an annual 1% rise in atmospheric CO2 over 140 years. This surface warming response defines a climate metric, the Transient Climate Response to cumulative carbon Emissions (TCRE), which is important in estimating how much carbon may be emitted to avoid dangerous climate. The processes controlling these intermodel differences in the TCRE are revealed by defining the TCRE in terms of a product of three dependences: the surface warming dependence on radiative forcing (including the effects of physical climate feedbacks and planetary heat uptake), the radiative forcing dependence on changes in atmospheric carbon and the airborne fraction. Intermodel differences in the TCRE are mainly controlled by the thermal response involving the surface warming dependence on radiative forcing, which arise through large differences in physical climate feedbacks that are only partly compensated by smaller differences in ocean heat uptake. The other contributions to the TCRE from the radiative forcing and carbon responses are of comparable importance to the contribution from the thermal response on timescales of 50 years and longer for our subset of CMIP5 models and 100 years and longer for our subset of CMIP6 models. Hence, providing tighter constraints on how much carbon may be emitted based on the TCRE requires providing tighter bounds for estimates of the physical climate feedbacks, particularly from clouds, as well as to a lesser extent for the other contributions from the rate of ocean heat uptake, and the terrestrial and ocean cycling of carbon. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/293937 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Richard G Williams,Paulo Ceppi,Anna Katavouta. Controls of the transient climate response to emissions by physical feedbacks, heat uptake and carbon cycling[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2020. |
APA | Richard G Williams,Paulo Ceppi,&Anna Katavouta.(2020).Controls of the transient climate response to emissions by physical feedbacks, heat uptake and carbon cycling.Environmental Research Letters. |
MLA | Richard G Williams,et al."Controls of the transient climate response to emissions by physical feedbacks, heat uptake and carbon cycling".Environmental Research Letters (2020). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论