Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JAS-D-18-0114.1 |
The Predictability of Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability: Insights from Attractor Reconstruction | |
Ramesh, Nandini1; Cane, Mark A.2 | |
2019-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES |
ISSN | 0022-4928 |
EISSN | 1520-0469 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 76期号:3页码:801-819 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), though not the totality of Pacific decadal variability, has wide-ranging climatic impacts. It is currently unclear whether this phenomenon is predictable. In this study, we reconstruct the attractor of the tropical Pacific system in long, unforced simulations from an intermediate-complexity model, two general circulation models (GCMs), and the observations with the aim of assessing the predictability of TPDV in these systems. We find that in the intermediate-complexity model, positive (high variance, El Nino-like) and negative (low variance, La Nina-like) phases of TPDV emerge as a pair of regime-like states. The observed system bears resemblance to this behavior, as does one GCM, while the other GCM does not display this structure. However, these last three time series are too short to confidently characterize the full distribution of interdecadal variability. The intermediate-complexity model is shown to lie in highly predictable parts of its attractor 37% of the time, during which most transitions between TPDV regimes occur. The similarities between the observations and this system suggest that the tropical Pacific may be somewhat predictable on interdecadal time scales. |
英文关键词 | Atmosphere Ocean Tropics Nonlinear dynamics Pacific decadal oscillation Climate prediction |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000460745700002 |
WOS关键词 | NINO-SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; EL-NINO ; CLIMATE SHIFT ; PART I ; ENSO ; MODULATION ; PREDICTION ; OCEAN ; CYCLE ; CIRCULATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29373 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Columbia Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, New York, NY 10027 USA; 2.Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ramesh, Nandini,Cane, Mark A.. The Predictability of Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability: Insights from Attractor Reconstruction[J]. JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2019,76(3):801-819. |
APA | Ramesh, Nandini,&Cane, Mark A..(2019).The Predictability of Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability: Insights from Attractor Reconstruction.JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,76(3),801-819. |
MLA | Ramesh, Nandini,et al."The Predictability of Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability: Insights from Attractor Reconstruction".JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 76.3(2019):801-819. |
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