资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The projected monsoon hydrological sensitivity, namely the precipitation change rate per Kelvin of global warming, shows substantial inter‐model spread among 40 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. The hydrological sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon (NHSM) is negatively correlated with that of the Southern Hemisphere summer monsoon (SHSM). The inter‐model spread of the NHSM hydrological sensitivity is mainly attributed to the projected interhemispheric temperature gradients and the associated low‐level cross‐equatorial flows. The intermodel spread of the Afro‐Asia summer monsoon sensitivity is rooted in the projected continent‐ocean thermal gradients, while the spread of the North American monsoon sensitivity is related to the projected sea surface temperature pattern in the tropical eastern Pacific and Atlantic. These findings suggest that further constraining monsoon hydrological sensitivity requires a better projection of the warming rate between the northern and southern hemispheres, between the land and ocean, and the sea surface warming pattern in the tropical eastern Pacific and Atlantic.