Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JAS-D-20-0070.1 |
Stochastic Variability of Tropical Cyclone Intensity at the Maximum Potential Intensity Equilibrium | |
Nguyen, Phuong; Kieu, Chanh; Fan, Wai-Tong | |
2020-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
![]() |
出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | This study examines the variability of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity associated with stochastic forcings at the maximum potential intensity (PI) equilibrium. By representing TC intensity as an Itô diffusion process in the framework of TC-scale dynamics, we show from both theoretical and numerical analyses that there exists an invariant intensity distribution whose variance is proportional to the variances of stochastic forcings. This result provides further evidence that TC dynamics possess an intrinsic variability that prevents the TC absolute intensity errors in numerical models from being reduced below an arbitrarily small threshold. Analysis of the invariant intensity distribution at the PI limit reveals also that the stochastic forcing component associated with tangential wind and the warm-core anomaly in the TC central region have the largest contribution to TC intensity variability. These results suggest that future development of stochastic representation in TC models should focus on the tangential wind and thermodynamic structure to capture proper TC intensity random fluctuations. |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/293040 |
专题 | 地球科学 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nguyen, Phuong,Kieu, Chanh,Fan, Wai-Tong. Stochastic Variability of Tropical Cyclone Intensity at the Maximum Potential Intensity Equilibrium[J]. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,2020. |
APA | Nguyen, Phuong,Kieu, Chanh,&Fan, Wai-Tong.(2020).Stochastic Variability of Tropical Cyclone Intensity at the Maximum Potential Intensity Equilibrium.Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. |
MLA | Nguyen, Phuong,et al."Stochastic Variability of Tropical Cyclone Intensity at the Maximum Potential Intensity Equilibrium".Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences (2020). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论