资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Temperature changes in the Arctic lower stratosphere on both short- and long-term time scales are critical for changing the magnitude of ozone losses in the Arctic vortex. In this paper, an approximate month-to-month temperature change equation is constructed and extended to a new form for decade-to-decade changes. Then we provide a verification of these equations and show an example of an application for partitioning between the dynamical and radiative contributions to the Arctic lower-stratospheric temperature decadal changes, as well as the trends, using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data during the period of 1980-99. At 100 hPa, the month-to-month Arctic temperature increment is a small term compared to the dynamical heating and diabatic heating, which are largely canceling terms with maximum magnitudes in November-April and October-March, respectively. However, it is not the case for their decadal changes and the decadal change of the Arctic current-month temperature compared to those of the regressed dynamical heating and radiative heating, where the current-month decadal changes and the corresponding trends are approached except in March and a rough agreement exists between these trends and those reported in other studies. The dynamical plus diabatic heating term and the temperature increment, as well as their decadal changes, are roughly balanced during the annual oscillation. However, some departures exist in both cases because of the large deviations or uncertainties of relevant terms and also probably due to the quasigeostrophic approximation and the eddy heat flux approximation of the dynamical heating, and a restricted condition of the eddy heat flux approximation is given at the end.