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DOI | 10.1029/2020GL088508 |
Sub‐seasonal Forecast Skill for Weekly Mean Atmospheric Variability over the Northern Hemisphere in Winter and its Relationship to Mid‐Latitude Teleconnections | |
Akio Yamagami; Mio Matsueda | |
2020-08-21 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters |
出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | This study assesses the sub‐seasonal predictability of the weekly mean geopotential height anomaly at 500 hPa and its relationship to teleconnections over the Northern Hemisphere in winter. The skill over the North Pacific, Canada, and Greenland is higher than over other areas for week‐3 and ‐4 forecasts. These peaks correspond to the centers of action for the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). PNA (NAO phase) predictions are better for El Niño years at lead times of 3–4 weeks (2–4 weeks). The effects of La Niña forcing on PNA and NAO forecasts are small compared with the El Niño forcing. Numerical models have a negative PNA bias at these lead times in La Niña years. Results suggest that the improvement in the mid‐latitude upper‐level jet rather than in the response to ENSO forcing in the tropics could lead to better S2S predictions. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
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文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/291131 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Akio Yamagami,Mio Matsueda. Sub‐seasonal Forecast Skill for Weekly Mean Atmospheric Variability over the Northern Hemisphere in Winter and its Relationship to Mid‐Latitude Teleconnections[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2020. |
APA | Akio Yamagami,&Mio Matsueda.(2020).Sub‐seasonal Forecast Skill for Weekly Mean Atmospheric Variability over the Northern Hemisphere in Winter and its Relationship to Mid‐Latitude Teleconnections.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | Akio Yamagami,et al."Sub‐seasonal Forecast Skill for Weekly Mean Atmospheric Variability over the Northern Hemisphere in Winter and its Relationship to Mid‐Latitude Teleconnections".Geophysical Research Letters (2020). |
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