Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41893-019-0245-y |
Global forecasts of shipping traffic and biological invasions to 2050 | |
Sardain, Anthony1; Sardain, Erik2; Leung, Brian1,3 | |
2019-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE SUSTAINABILITY |
ISSN | 2398-9629 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 2期号:4页码:274-282 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada; Singapore |
英文摘要 | Socioeconomic factors, including population growth, global trade and the worldwide transport of materials, interact with environmental drivers to determine the sustainability of natural systems. We focus on the global shipping network, which is central to invasive species spread worldwide. We explain 90% of the variation in global shipping traffic and a twofold increase in shipping using basic socioeconomic indicators and a temporal validation set. Combining our model with global economic development scenarios, we project global maritime traffic to increase by 240-1,209% by 2050. Integrating our predictions with global climate change projections and shipping-mediated invasion models, we forecast invasion risk to surge in middle-income countries, particularly in Northeast Asia. Shipping growth will have a far greater effect on marine invasions than climate-driven environmental changes: while climate change might actually decrease the average probability of invasion, the emerging global shipping network could yield a 3- to 20-fold increase in global invasion risk. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000463925700013 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RISK-ASSESSMENT ; GRAVITY ; ASSESSMENTS ; TRANSPORT ; PRESSURE ; SECURITY ; INDUSTRY ; PATHWAY ; TRADE |
WOS类目 | Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/289786 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.McGill Univ, Dept Biol, Montreal, PQ, Canada; 2.BHP Mkt Asia Pte Ltd, Singapore, Singapore; 3.McGill Univ, McGill Sch Environm, Montreal, PQ, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sardain, Anthony,Sardain, Erik,Leung, Brian. Global forecasts of shipping traffic and biological invasions to 2050[J]. NATURE SUSTAINABILITY,2019,2(4):274-282. |
APA | Sardain, Anthony,Sardain, Erik,&Leung, Brian.(2019).Global forecasts of shipping traffic and biological invasions to 2050.NATURE SUSTAINABILITY,2(4),274-282. |
MLA | Sardain, Anthony,et al."Global forecasts of shipping traffic and biological invasions to 2050".NATURE SUSTAINABILITY 2.4(2019):274-282. |
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