Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum-Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness

doi:10.1029/2018GL078007

GSTDTAP > 气候变化

DOI	10.1029/2018GL078007
	Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum-Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness
	Aalto, J.1,2; Karjalainen, O.3; Hjort, J.3; Luoto, M.1
	2018-05-28
发表期刊	GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN	0094-8276
EISSN	1944-8007
出版年	2018
卷号	45 期号:10 页码:4889-4898
文章类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Finland
英文摘要	Mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active layer thickness (ALT) are key to understanding the evolution of the ground thermal state across the Arctic under climate change. Here a statistical modeling approach is presented to forecast current and future circum-Arctic MAGT and ALT in relation to climatic and local environmental factors, at spatial scales unreachable with contemporary transient modeling. After deploying an ensemble of multiple statistical techniques, distance-blocked cross validation between observations and predictions suggested excellent and reasonable transferability of the MAGT and ALT models, respectively. The MAGT forecasts indicated currently suitable conditions for permafrost to prevail over an area of 15.1 +/- 2.8 x 10(6) km(2). This extent is likely to dramatically contract in the future, as the results showed consistent, but region-specific, changes in ground thermal regime due to climate change. The forecasts provide new opportunities to assess future Arctic changes in ground thermal state and biogeochemical feedback.
英文关键词	ensemble modeling permafrost climate change uncertainty Arctic ground thermal regime
领域	气候变化
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000435262000040
WOS关键词	SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; PERMAFROST REGION ; THERMAL REGIME ; CLIMATE ; DYNAMICS ; DEGRADATION ; ICE ; UNCERTAINTY ; ACCURACY ; SVALBARD
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向	Geology
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/28975
专题	气候变化
作者单位	1.Univ Helsinki, Dept Geosci & Geog, Helsinki, Finland; 2.Finnish Meteorol Inst, Helsinki, Finland; 3.Univ Oulu, Geog Res Unit, Oulu, Finland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Aalto, J.,Karjalainen, O.,Hjort, J.,et al. Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum-Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(10):4889-4898.
APA	Aalto, J.,Karjalainen, O.,Hjort, J.,&Luoto, M..(2018).Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum-Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(10),4889-4898.
MLA	Aalto, J.,et al."Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum-Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.10(2018):4889-4898.