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DOI | 10.1029/2020JD032670 |
Subseasonal Prediction of Land Cold Extremes in Boreal Wintertime | |
Xiang, Baoqiang1,2; Sun, Y. Qiang1,3; Chen, Jan-Huey1,2; Johnson, Nathaniel C.1; Jiang, Xianan4 | |
2020-07-16 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 125期号:13 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Subseasonal climate prediction has emerged as a top forecast priority but remains a great challenge. Subseasonal extreme prediction is even more difficult than predicting the time-mean variability. Here we show that the wintertime cold extremes, measured by the frequency of extreme cold days (ECDs), are skillfully predicted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model 2-4 weeks in advance over a large fraction of the Northern Hemisphere land region. The physical basis for such skill in predicting ECDs is primarily rooted in predicting a small subset of leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of ECDs identified from observations, including two modes in Eurasia (North Atlantic Oscillation and Eurasia Meridional Dipole mode) and three modes in North America (North Pacific Oscillation, Pacific-North America teleconnection mode, and the North America Zonal Dipole mode). It is of interest to note that these two modes in Eurasia are more predictable than the three leading modes in North America mainly due to their longer persistence. The source of predictability for the leading EOF modes mainly originates from atmospheric internal modes and the land-atmosphere coupling. All these modes are strongly coupled to dynamically coherent planetary-scale atmospheric circulations, which not only amplify but also prolong the surface air temperature anomaly, serving as a source of predictability at subseasonal timescales. The Eurasian Meridional Dipole mode is also tied to the lower-boundary snow anomaly, and the snow-atmosphere coupling helps sustain this mode and provides a source of predictability. |
英文关键词 | subseasonal prediction extremes surface air temperature predictability sources land-atmosphere coupling |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000551484700036 |
WOS关键词 | SURFACE AIR-TEMPERATURE ; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; SEA-ICE PREDICTION ; DOMINANT PATTERNS ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; VARIABILITY ; ENSEMBLE ; MJO ; TELECONNECTIONS ; FREQUENCY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/289488 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA; 2.Univ Corp Atmospher Res, Cooperat Programs Adv Earth Syst Sci, Boulder, CO 80301 USA; 3.Princeton Univ, Program Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 4.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Joint Inst Reg Earth Syst Sci & Engn, Los Angeles, CA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xiang, Baoqiang,Sun, Y. Qiang,Chen, Jan-Huey,et al. Subseasonal Prediction of Land Cold Extremes in Boreal Wintertime[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2020,125(13). |
APA | Xiang, Baoqiang,Sun, Y. Qiang,Chen, Jan-Huey,Johnson, Nathaniel C.,&Jiang, Xianan.(2020).Subseasonal Prediction of Land Cold Extremes in Boreal Wintertime.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,125(13). |
MLA | Xiang, Baoqiang,et al."Subseasonal Prediction of Land Cold Extremes in Boreal Wintertime".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 125.13(2020). |
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