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DOI10.1029/2019JD031369
Significance of 4DVAR Radar Data Assimilation in Weather Research and Forecast Model-Based Nowcasting System
Thiruvengadam, P.; Indu, J.; Ghosh, Subimal
2020-06-16
发表期刊JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
ISSN2169-897X
EISSN2169-8996
出版年2020
卷号125期号:11
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家India
英文摘要

Accurate nowcasting of short-lived extreme weather events is essential for saving millions of lives and property. Traditional methods of nowcasting are majorly focused on extrapolation of precipitation derived from radar reflectivity data, which often fail to capture the initiation and decay of weather systems. Earlier studies have shown the ability of high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models to better capture the structure and lifecycle of storms compared to data-driven methods. However, the initial value problem of NWP makes it more challenging to be implemented for nowcasting applications. To handle such uncertainty from initial conditions, we have designed an NWP nowcasting system based on variational approach using WRF model. One of the major challenges of the variational methods in the nowcasting system is the choice of control variables used for generating background error statistics. Thus, we have investigated the impact of control variable options on improving the skill of variational-based NWP nowcasting system. The proposed nowcasting system was tested for a heavy rainfall event that occurred over the Chennai city, India, on 1 December 2015, by assimilating Doppler Weather Radar data using different control variable options in Weather Research and Forecast-three-dimensional (3DVAR)- and four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR)-based nowcasting system. Results show that control variables choices have a positive impact on 4DVAR analysis, particularly on radial velocity. Our results also indicate that assimilation of Doppler Weather Radar data with zonal and meridional momentum control variable in a 4DVAR system shows more than 30% improvement in precipitation forecast skill compared to the 3DVAR system.


英文关键词data assimilation 3DVAR 4DVAR background error nowcasting WRF
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000541156800007
WOS关键词HEAVY RAINFALL ; CLOUD MODEL ; SQUALL LINE ; MICROPHYSICAL RETRIEVAL ; CONTROL VARIABLES ; MET OFFICE ; PART II ; PRECIPITATION ; PREDICTION ; CONVECTION
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
被引频次:11[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/289453
专题气候变化
作者单位Indian Inst Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
推荐引用方式
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Thiruvengadam, P.,Indu, J.,Ghosh, Subimal. Significance of 4DVAR Radar Data Assimilation in Weather Research and Forecast Model-Based Nowcasting System[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2020,125(11).
APA Thiruvengadam, P.,Indu, J.,&Ghosh, Subimal.(2020).Significance of 4DVAR Radar Data Assimilation in Weather Research and Forecast Model-Based Nowcasting System.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,125(11).
MLA Thiruvengadam, P.,et al."Significance of 4DVAR Radar Data Assimilation in Weather Research and Forecast Model-Based Nowcasting System".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 125.11(2020).
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