GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ab87d2
Seasonal prediction of Euro-Atlantic teleconnections from multiple systems
Lledo, Llorenc1; Cionni, Irene2; Torralba, Veronica1; Bretonniere, Pierre-Antoine1; Samso, Margarida1
2020-07-01
发表期刊ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
出版年2020
卷号15期号:7
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Spain; Italy
英文摘要

Seasonal mean atmospheric circulation in Europe can vary substantially from year to year. This diversity of conditions impacts many socioeconomic sectors. Teleconnection indices can be used to characterize this seasonal variability, while seasonal forecasts of those indices offer the opportunity to take adaptation actions a few months in advance. For instance, the North Atlantic Oscillation has proven useful as a proxy for atmospheric effects in several sectors, and dynamical forecasts of its evolution in winter have been shown skillful. However the NAO only characterizes part of this seasonal circulation anomalies, and other teleconnections such as the East Atlantic, the East Atlantic Western Russia or the Scandinavian Pattern also play an important role in shaping atmospheric conditions in the continent throughout the year. This paper explores the quality of seasonal forecasts of these four teleconnection indices for the four seasons of the year, derived from five different seasonal prediction systems. We find that several teleconnection indices can be skillfully predicted in advance in winter, spring and summer. We also show that there is no single prediction system that performs better than the others for all seasons and teleconnections, and that a multi-system approach produces results that are as good as the best of the systems.


英文关键词Euro-Atlantic Teleconnections teleconnections seasonal prediction multi-system predictions climate variability
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000547011200001
WOS关键词OSCILLATION ; SKILL ; FRAMEWORK ; FORECASTS
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/289375
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Barcelona Supercomp Ctr BSC, Barcelona, Spain;
2.Agenzia Nazl Nuove Tecnol Energia & Sviluppo Econ, Rome, Italy
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Lledo, Llorenc,Cionni, Irene,Torralba, Veronica,et al. Seasonal prediction of Euro-Atlantic teleconnections from multiple systems[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,15(7).
APA Lledo, Llorenc,Cionni, Irene,Torralba, Veronica,Bretonniere, Pierre-Antoine,&Samso, Margarida.(2020).Seasonal prediction of Euro-Atlantic teleconnections from multiple systems.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,15(7).
MLA Lledo, Llorenc,et al."Seasonal prediction of Euro-Atlantic teleconnections from multiple systems".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 15.7(2020).
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