Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104913 |
Seasonal and regional changes in temperature projections over the Arabian Peninsula based on the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble dataset | |
Almazroui, Mansour1; Khalid, M. Salman1; Islam, M. Nazrul1; Saeed, Sajjad1,2 | |
2020-07-15 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0169-8095 |
EISSN | 1873-2895 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 239 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Saudi Arabia; Belgium |
英文摘要 | This study explores the seasonal to inter-seasonal and regional changes in temperature (and related uncertainties) over the Arabian Peninsula, by using the multi-model ensemble from the Couple Models Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The seasonal temperature changes are examined for three future periods (2030-2039; 2060-2069 and 2090-2099) with reference to the present climate (1971-2000). The 22-member CMIP5 mean multi-model ensemble (MME) shows a significant increase in temperature (at the 95% confidence level) over the Arabian Peninsula during all three future periods, under both RCPs. The results indicate that the southern and central regions of the Arabian Peninsula are likely to experience larger future temperature changes during the winter and spring seasons. On the other hand, amplification in future temperature changes over the northern and central regions of the Peninsula will more likely occur during the summer and autumn seasons. The interseasonal analysis of the MME shows large temperature biases during the winter (Dec-Feb) and summer (Jun Aug) months, while the simulated results closely resemble the observations during both transition periods i.e. spring (Mar-May) and autumn (Sep-Nov). The inter-seasonal results also reveal larger (smaller) temperature increases during September, October and November (March, April) for all future periods under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results further indicate that the central region of the Arabian Peninsula will experience higher temperatures during all seasons in the 21st century. This information on changes in projected temperature is valuable for the long-term planning of the region. |
英文关键词 | Temperature projection Seasons Regions CMIP5 multi-models Arabian Peninsula |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000525324000007 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SAUDI-ARABIA ; PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY ; TRENDS ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/289283 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.King Abdulaziz Univ, Ctr Excellence Climate Change Res, Dept Meteorol, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia; 2.Katholieke Univ Leuven, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Leuven, Belgium |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Almazroui, Mansour,Khalid, M. Salman,Islam, M. Nazrul,et al. Seasonal and regional changes in temperature projections over the Arabian Peninsula based on the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble dataset[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2020,239. |
APA | Almazroui, Mansour,Khalid, M. Salman,Islam, M. Nazrul,&Saeed, Sajjad.(2020).Seasonal and regional changes in temperature projections over the Arabian Peninsula based on the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble dataset.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,239. |
MLA | Almazroui, Mansour,et al."Seasonal and regional changes in temperature projections over the Arabian Peninsula based on the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble dataset".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 239(2020). |
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