资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The Arctic is one of the least human-impacted parts of the world, but, in turn, tundra biome is facing the most rapid climate change on Earth. These perturbations may cause major reshuffling of Arctic species compositions and functional trait profiles and diversity, thereby affecting ecosystem processes of the whole tundra region. Earlier research has detected important drivers of the change in plant functional traits under warming climate, but studies on one key factor, snow cover, are almost totally lacking. Here we integrate plot-scale vegetation data with detailed climate and snow information using machine learning methods to model the responsiveness of tundra communities to different scenarios of warming and snow cover duration. Our results show that decreasing snow cover, together with warming temperatures, can substantially modify biotic communities and their trait compositions, with future plant communities projected to be occupied by taller plants with larger leaves and faster resource acquisition strategies. As another finding, we show that, while the local functional diversity may increase, simultaneous biotic homogenization across tundra communities is likely to occur. The manifestation of climate warming on tundra vegetation is highly dependent on the evolution of snow conditions. Given this, realistic assessments of future ecosystem functioning require acknowledging the role of snow in tundra vegetation models.