资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

During the Quaternary, the Sahara desert was periodically colonized by vegetation, likely because of orbitally induced rainfall increases. However, the estimated hydrological change is not reproduced in climate model simulations, undermining confidence in projections of future rainfall. We evaluated the relationship between the qualitative information on past vegetation coverage and climate for the mid-Holocene using three different dynamic vegetation models. Compared with two available vegetation reconstructions, the models require 500-800mmof rainfall over 20 degrees-25 degrees N, which is significantly larger than inferred from pollen but largely in agreement with more recent leaf wax biomarker reconstructions. The magnitude of the response also suggests that required rainfall regime of the early to middle Holocene is far from being correctly represented in general circulation models. However, intermodel differences related to moisture stress parameterizations, biases in simulated present-day vegetation, and uncertainties about paleosoil distributions introduce uncertainties, and these are also relevant to Earth system model simulations of African humid periods.