资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

At regional to local scales internal variability is expected to be a dominant source of uncertainty in analyzing precipitation extremes and mean precipitation even far into the 21^st century. A debated topic is whether a faster increase in sub‐daily precipitation extremes can be expected. Here we analyzed seasonal maximum precipitation in various time steps (3‐hours, days, and 5‐days) from a high‐resolution 50‐member large‐ensemble (CRCM5‐LE) and compared them to changes in mean precipitation over Europe. Our results show that the magnitude of change in extreme precipitation varies for season and duration. Sub‐daily extremes increase at higher rates than daily extremes and show higher scaling with temperature. Northern Europe shows widespread scaling above Clausius‐Clapeyron of sub‐daily extremes in all seasons and for daily extremes in winter/spring. Scaling above Clausius‐Clapeyron is also visible over Eastern Europe in winter/spring. For most regions and seasons the forced response emerges from the internal variability by mid‐century.