Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018GL079341 |
Western Pacific Oceanic Heat Content: A Better Predictor of La Nina Than of El Nino | |
Planton, Yann1; Vialard, Jerome1; Guilyardi, Eric1,2; Lengaigne, Matthieu1,3; Izumo, Takeshi1,3 | |
2018-09-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:18页码:9824-9833 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France; England; India |
英文摘要 | The western equatorial Pacific oceanic heat content (warm water volume in the west or WWVw) is the best El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictor beyond 1-year lead. Using observations and selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations, we show that a discharged WWVw in boreal fall is a better predictor of La Nina than a recharged WWVw for El Nino 13 months later, both in terms of occurrence and amplitude. These results are robust when considering the heat content across the entire equatorial Pacific (WWV) at shorter lead times, including all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models or excluding Nino-Nina and Nina-Nino phase transitions. Suggested mechanisms for this asymmetry include (1) the negatively skewed WWVw distribution with stronger discharges related to stronger wind stress anomalies during El Nino and (2) the stronger positive Bjerknes feedback loop during El Nino. The possible role of stronger subseasonal wind variations during El Nino is also discussed. Plain language summary El Nino and La Nina have strong societal impacts at the global scale, especially large-amplitude El Nino events like in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016. It is hence important to identify early warning signals for the occurrence of El Nino/La Nina. The equatorial Pacific Ocean heat content is a well-known predictor of El Nino/La Nina several seasons ahead. In this study, we show that negative heat content anomalies lead more systematically to La Nina events than positive heat content to El Nino events. We suggest that the enhanced predictability of La Nina relative to El Nino is due to larger negative heat content anomalies ahead of La Nina events and a more unstable (and hence less predictable) ocean-atmosphere system during El Nino. |
英文关键词 | ENSO predictability El Nino - La Nina asymmetry oceanic preconditioning warm water volume CMIP5 |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000447761300054 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; WIND BURSTS ; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ; RECHARGE PARADIGM ; ENSO ; EVENTS ; MODEL ; ASYMMETRIES ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/28736 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Sorbonne Univ, LOCEAN, CNRS, IRD,MNHN,IPSL, Paris, France; 2.Univ Reading, NCAS Climate, Reading, Berks, England; 3.NIO, Indo French Cell Water Sci, IISc NIO IITM IRD Joint Int Lab, Panaji, India |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Planton, Yann,Vialard, Jerome,Guilyardi, Eric,et al. Western Pacific Oceanic Heat Content: A Better Predictor of La Nina Than of El Nino[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(18):9824-9833. |
APA | Planton, Yann,Vialard, Jerome,Guilyardi, Eric,Lengaigne, Matthieu,&Izumo, Takeshi.(2018).Western Pacific Oceanic Heat Content: A Better Predictor of La Nina Than of El Nino.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(18),9824-9833. |
MLA | Planton, Yann,et al."Western Pacific Oceanic Heat Content: A Better Predictor of La Nina Than of El Nino".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.18(2018):9824-9833. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论