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DOI | 10.5194/acp-20-8441-2020 |
Adding value to extended-range forecasts in northern Europe by statistical post-processing using stratospheric observations | |
Korhonen, Natalia1; Hyvarinen, Otto1; Kamarainen, Matti1; Richardson, David S.2; Jarvinen, Heikki3; Gregow, Hilppa1 | |
2020-07-20 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS |
ISSN | 1680-7316 |
EISSN | 1680-7324 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 20期号:14页码:8441-8451 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Finland; England |
英文摘要 | The strength of the stratospheric polar vortex influences the surface weather in the Northern Hemisphere in winter; a weaker (stronger) than average stratospheric polar vortex is connected to negative (positive) Arctic Oscillation (AO) and colder (warmer) than average surface temperatures in northern Europe within weeks or months. This holds the potential for forecasting in that timescale. We investigate here if the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex at the start of the forecast could be used to improve the extended-range temperature forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and to find periods with higher prediction skill scores. For this, we developed a stratospheric wind indicator (SWI) based on the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex and the phase of the AO during the following weeks. We demonstrate that there was a statistically significant difference in the observed surface temperature in northern Europe within the 3-6 weeks, depending on the SWI at the start of the forecast. When our new SWI was applied in post-processing the ECMWF's 2-week mean temperature reforecasts for weeks 3-4 and 5-6 in northern Europe during boreal winter, the skill scores of those weeks were slightly improved. This indicates there is some room for improving the extended-range forecasts, if the stratosphere-troposphere links were better captured in the modelling. In addition to this, we found that during the boreal winter, in cases where the polar vortex was weak at the start of the forecast, the mean skill scores of the 3-6 weeks' surface temperature forecasts were higher than average. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000552228600001 |
WOS关键词 | MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION ; ARCTIC OSCILLATION ; TELECONNECTIONS ; PREDICTION ; IMPACTS ; WEATHER |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/286745 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Finnish Meteorol Inst, Weather & Climate Change Impact Res, Helsinki, Finland; 2.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF, Reading, Berks, England; 3.Univ Helsinki, Fac Sci, Inst Atmospher & Earth Syst Res Phys, Helsinki, Finland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Korhonen, Natalia,Hyvarinen, Otto,Kamarainen, Matti,et al. Adding value to extended-range forecasts in northern Europe by statistical post-processing using stratospheric observations[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2020,20(14):8441-8451. |
APA | Korhonen, Natalia,Hyvarinen, Otto,Kamarainen, Matti,Richardson, David S.,Jarvinen, Heikki,&Gregow, Hilppa.(2020).Adding value to extended-range forecasts in northern Europe by statistical post-processing using stratospheric observations.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,20(14),8441-8451. |
MLA | Korhonen, Natalia,et al."Adding value to extended-range forecasts in northern Europe by statistical post-processing using stratospheric observations".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 20.14(2020):8441-8451. |
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