Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.15199 |
Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert‐based assessment | |
Franz Essl; Bernd Lenzner; Sven Bacher; Sarah Bailey; Cesar Capinha; Curtis Daehler; Stefan Dullinger; Piero Genovesi; Cang Hui; Philip E. Hulme; Jonathan M. Jeschke; Stelios Katsanevakis; Ingolf Kü; hn; Brian Leung; Andrew Liebhold; Chunlong Liu; Hugh J. MacIsaac; Laura A. Meyerson; Martin A. Nuñ; ez; Aní; bal Pauchard; Petr Pyš; ek; Wolfgang Rabitsch; David M. Richardson; Helen E. Roy; Gregory M. Ruiz; James C. Russell; Nathan J. Sanders; Dov F. Sax; Riccardo Scalera; Hanno Seebens; Michael Springborn; Anna Turbelin; Mark van Kleunen; Betsy von Holle; Marten Winter; Rafael D. Zenni; Brady J. Mattsson; Nuria Roura‐; Pascual | |
2020-07-14 | |
发表期刊 | Global Change Biology |
出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio‐economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid‐21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%–30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions—transport, climate change and socio‐economic change—were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best‐case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best‐case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post‐2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity. |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/286696 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Franz Essl,Bernd Lenzner,Sven Bacher,等. Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert‐based assessment[J]. Global Change Biology,2020. |
APA | Franz Essl.,Bernd Lenzner.,Sven Bacher.,Sarah Bailey.,Cesar Capinha.,...&Pascual.(2020).Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert‐based assessment.Global Change Biology. |
MLA | Franz Essl,et al."Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert‐based assessment".Global Change Biology (2020). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论